ThinQ Decisions

When the Anchors Become the Risk For years, assumptions such as 2% inflation or a 10% discount rate often served as convenient anchors in evaluating investment alternatives. Today, those anchors are being revisited. When inflation, interest rates and FX become less predictable, the assumptions sitting underneath a valuation can become a material source of risk themselves. A very good conversation between Gungloch and Rosenberg touches on exactly these changing macro conditions—and is well worth listening to. https://lnkd.in/ePENTGc9

https://lnkd.in/erHaukep Another great macro discussion from Louis Gave, Vincent Deluard and Robert Mullin. At dclear, we're constantly looking for perspectives that challenge the assumptions sitting behind important decisions. This conversation is full of them. One theme in particular stood out: what happens when several signals that normally move together suddenly stop behaving as expected? Louis points to an unusual combination: rising US bond yields, rising energy prices and widening corporate spreads — conditions that would historically tend to support a stronger US dollar — while several North Asian currencies have instead been strengthening. His argument is that this divergence may be telling us something important about changing global capital flows. Вставленный текст Later, the discussion broadens into where Asian savings may flow, the potential repatriation of Japanese capital, growing demand for capital from energy and infrastructure, and what all of this could mean for global asset allocation. Вставленный текст Вставленный текст Whether or not you agree with the conclusions, this is exactly the kind of discussion we find valuable. Because good decisions aren't built by finding one forecast and believing it. They're built by asking: What are the competing views? What assumptions sit behind them? What evidence would change our mind? And which uncertainties actually matter to the decision? That's a big part of what we're building at dclear: a way for organisations to capture those perspectives, assumptions and uncertainties inside a living decision system — and keep them connected as the world changes. Worth a listen for anyone thinking about macro, capital allocation, energy or investment decisions. dclear | Decision Architecture Platform Structure the uncertainty. Decide with confidence.

https://lnkd.in/erHaukep Another great macro discussion from Louis Gave, Vincent Deluard and Robert Mullin. At dclear, we're constantly looking for perspectives that challenge the assumptions sitting behind important decisions. This conversation is full of them. One theme in particular stood out: what happens when several signals that normally move together suddenly stop behaving as expected? Louis points to an unusual combination: rising US bond yields, rising energy prices and widening corporate spreads — conditions that would historically tend to support a stronger US dollar — while several North Asian currencies have instead been strengthening. His argument is that this divergence may be telling us something important about changing global capital flows. Вставленный текст Later, the discussion broadens into where Asian savings may flow, the potential repatriation of Japanese capital, growing demand for capital from energy and infrastructure, and what all of this could mean for global asset allocation. Вставленный текст Вставленный текст Whether or not you agree with the conclusions, this is exactly the kind of discussion we find valuable. Because good decisions aren't built by finding one forecast and believing it. They're built by asking: What are the competing views? What assumptions sit behind them? What evidence would change our mind? And which uncertainties actually matter to the decision? That's a big part of what we're building at dclear: a way for organisations to capture those perspectives, assumptions and uncertainties inside a living decision system — and keep them connected as the world changes. Worth a listen for anyone thinking about macro, capital allocation, energy or investment decisions. dclear | Decision Architecture Platform Structure the uncertainty. Decide with confidence.

https://lnkd.in/erHaukep Another great macro discussion from Louis Gave, Vincent Deluard and Robert Mullin. At dclear, we're constantly looking for perspectives that challenge the assumptions sitting behind important decisions. This conversation is full of them. One theme in particular stood out: what happens when several signals that normally move together suddenly stop behaving as expected? Louis points to an unusual combination: rising US bond yields, rising energy prices and widening corporate spreads — conditions that would historically tend to support a stronger US dollar — while several North Asian currencies have instead been strengthening. His argument is that this divergence may be telling us something important about changing global capital flows. Вставленный текст Later, the discussion broadens into where Asian savings may flow, the potential repatriation of Japanese capital, growing demand for capital from energy and infrastructure, and what all of this could mean for global asset allocation. Вставленный текст Вставленный текст Whether or not you agree with the conclusions, this is exactly the kind of discussion we find valuable. Because good decisions aren't built by finding one forecast and believing it. They're built by asking: What are the competing views? What assumptions sit behind them? What evidence would change our mind? And which uncertainties actually matter to the decision? That's a big part of what we're building at dclear: a way for organisations to capture those perspectives, assumptions and uncertainties inside a living decision system — and keep them connected as the world changes. Worth a listen for anyone thinking about macro, capital allocation, energy or investment decisions. dclear | Decision Architecture Platform Structure the uncertainty. Decide with confidence.

A classic — and still incredibly relevant. The hardest decisions are rarely about finding the “best” number. They’re about understanding what we truly value and making the trade-offs between competing objectives explicit. A foundational read for anyone working with decisions under uncertainty.

At ThinQ, we focus on decision analysis: making better decisions when the future is uncertain. But good decision analysis depends on something upstream: how you understand the world in which the decision will play out. This conversation with Louis-Vincent Gave, founder of Gavekal, is a good example. Louis brings an interesting perspective on the macro environment, particularly China. Having spent many years based in Hong Kong, his view of China and Asia is informed by a different vantage point from much of the Western macro commentary. Why does that matter for decision analysis? Because decisions are built on assumptions. Where will growth come from? How might China evolve? What happens to global capital flows? Are geopolitical and monetary relationships changing? Which assumptions from the last 20–30 years may no longer hold? You don't need to agree with an expert's conclusions for their perspective to be valuable. The useful question is: If this view of the world is right, which of my assumptions—and therefore which of my decisions—would change? That's how we want to use expert perspectives at ThinQ: not as predictions to follow, but as different lenses through which to test assumptions, explore uncertainty and build more robust decisions. Louis-Vincent Gave is a particularly interesting lens on China and the changing global macro environment. Worth watching: Louis-Vincent Gave — Navigating Global Tectonic Shifts: Investing in a New Era https://lnkd.in/eywJgwnz #DecisionAnalysis #DecisionMaking #Strategy #China #Macro #ThinQ

At ThinQ, we focus on decision analysis: making better decisions when the future is uncertain. But good decision analysis depends on something upstream: how you understand the world in which the decision will play out. This conversation with Louis-Vincent Gave, founder of Gavekal, is a good example. Louis brings an interesting perspective on the macro environment, particularly China. Having spent many years based in Hong Kong, his view of China and Asia is informed by a different vantage point from much of the Western macro commentary. Why does that matter for decision analysis? Because decisions are built on assumptions. Where will growth come from? How might China evolve? What happens to global capital flows? Are geopolitical and monetary relationships changing? Which assumptions from the last 20–30 years may no longer hold? You don't need to agree with an expert's conclusions for their perspective to be valuable. The useful question is: If this view of the world is right, which of my assumptions—and therefore which of my decisions—would change? That's how we want to use expert perspectives at ThinQ: not as predictions to follow, but as different lenses through which to test assumptions, explore uncertainty and build more robust decisions. Louis-Vincent Gave is a particularly interesting lens on China and the changing global macro environment. Worth watching: Louis-Vincent Gave — Navigating Global Tectonic Shifts: Investing in a New Era https://lnkd.in/eywJgwnz #DecisionAnalysis #DecisionMaking #Strategy #China #Macro #ThinQ

Tornado diagrams — simple, visual, and one of the most useful tools in Decision Analysis. Great reminder from the Society of Decision Professionals and David Matheson.

We’ve followed Jeff Currie’s “Revenge of the Old Economy” thesis closely. His latest conversation with Wilfred Frost on the generational hard-asset cycle raises an interesting question for us at ThinQ Decisions: What determines the duration, magnitude and path of that cycle? The structural forces are significant — years of underinvestment in the physical economy, rising sovereign debt and financial repression, geopolitical fragmentation, changing trade flows, the energy transition, and rapidly growing power and infrastructure requirements associated with AI. But these forces will interact in different ways and at different speeds. For us, this is where a compelling macro thesis becomes a Decision Analysis problem: identifying the critical uncertainties, understanding how they interact, developing plausible scenarios, and testing how different strategic choices perform across them. The question is not only what we believe will happen, but what we should do when several materially different futures remain possible. A fascinating discussion from Jeff Currie and Wilfred Frost — and one we will continue to follow closely at ThinQ Decisions.