Navigating AI's transformation of cybersecurity in the channel

The cybersecurity landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, and channel partners find themselves at a critical crossroads. As AI reshapes how security is delivered, sold, and valued, the strategies that drove success over the past decade are no longer guaranteed to work in the next. Omdia Chief Analyst Matthew Ball reviews the strategies partners need to adapt before they risk being left behind in an industry evolving faster than ever before.

The AI in cybersecurity opportunity: A partner-driven market

The cybersecurity market is experiencing robust growth, projected to reach $315 billion worldwide this year, a 13% increase. What makes this particularly significant for partners is the composition of this opportunity. While technology (licenses, subscriptions, and appliances) accounts for roughly one-third of spending, the remaining two-thirds comes from services spanning advisory, design, and managed security.

This creates what industry analysts call the "services multiplier effect." For every dollar of technology sold, partners generate over $2 in services revenue. More remarkably, over 90% of cybersecurity spending flows through, to, or with partners, a level of channel dependency unmatched in any other technology sector. As security complexity increases, customers increasingly rely on partners to navigate their challenges.

Three critical shifts reshaping the market

Partners face three fundamental changes in how customers approach cybersecurity AI, each demanding strategic recalibration.

Shift 1: What customers buy: The platform consolidation

Customers no longer want fragmented point solutions. They're demanding integrated platforms that simplify their security architecture. While over 6,500 vendors compete in cybersecurity, the top 20 now control more than 70% of technology spending. Leading vendors are leveraging AI to accelerate platform adoption and consolidate the dozens of disparate products cluttering customer environments.

This consolidation battle has profound implications for partners. When surveyed, 57% of partners said they were investing in platform vendors, while 54% prioritized those with superior AI capabilities. However, the most telling statistic is that 77% prioritize vendors who can help grow their managed security services business. Partners aren't just selecting technology. They are choosing who can amplify their services multiplier.

Shift 2: Where customers buy: The marketplace revolution

Hyperscaler marketplaces represent the fastest-growing route to market for cybersecurity. Last year, marketplace transaction values surged 49% to $8.2 billion, with forecasts projecting growth to $31 billion by 2030 at an average annual rate of 31%.

The driver is straightforward: customers have billions in committed cloud spending with AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. They're purchasing security through marketplaces to burn down these commitments while benefiting from larger platform deals, faster closures, and flexible consumption models. Looking ahead, AI agent microtransactions will sustain this marketplace momentum.

However, marketplaces don't reward all partners equally. They favor those large enough to list on platforms, capable of co-selling alongside hyperscalers, and positioned within major platform deals.

Shift 3: What customers pay for: The outcomes economy

The transition from products to outcomes is accelerating. Customers now expect three tiers of outcomes:

Tier 1: Contracted outcomes: Service levels and response commitments that, if missed, can cost partners their contracts.

Tier 2: Reported outcomes: Quarterly metrics demonstrating value that drive larger renewal discussions.

Tier 3: Business outcomes: Tangible results like reduced risk and lower insurance premiums that win deals but are hardest to prove.

AI is compressing these tiers. Contracted targets are being redefined as automation resets performance expectations. Reported outcomes are moving into contracts because AI enables reliable measurement. Most significantly, business outcomes are becoming provable for the first time—backed by evidence rather than promises.

The new value creation model

For years, partners created value by managing complexity. Selecting products, integrating them, and managing multi-vendor environments. AI is collapsing this model, but value isn't disappearing. It's shifting.

The future belongs to partners who can select and develop specialized security agents, orchestrate agentic workforces across customer environments, and provide what agents cannot: deep customer knowledge, and an understanding of data flows, workflows, and business operations. Agents supply the labor; partners provide the context. This is the new division of value.

The competitive reality

The ecosystem is both vast and concentrated. The top 500 cybersecurity partners globally control over half of all opportunities and account for nearly 60% of services delivered. Every vendor targets these partners, but partners typically maintain only two to four strategic vendor relationships. With thousands of vendors competing for these limited seats, the real competition is for partner mindshare.

For partners, success requires choosing the right platform vendor to establish their center of gravity, building proactive rather than reactive services where differentiation and multipliers are strongest, and selling outcomes first—early movers set the terms that followers must accept.

Conclusion: Certainty and uncertainty

Three things are certain for the next three years: AI-driven disruption will separate those who move first from those who wait, cybersecurity will shift from cost center to business enabler for AI-adopting customers, and AI will force organizations to rethink risk and rebuild defenses.

What's uncertain is whether every partner will grow profitably. The industry is evolving faster than ever, and many will be left behind. The choices partners make today about which platforms they need to embrace, which services to build, and which outcomes to guarantee will determine whether they thrive or struggle in the decade ahead.

Further consideration

This analysis only scratches the surface of the transformative changes reshaping the channel partner landscape. Matthew Ball, Chief Analyst at Omdia, will be expanding on these critical insights and providing actionable strategies for navigating the AI-driven cybersecurity revolution at the upcoming Canalys Forum. This premier industry event brings together leading channel partners, vendors, and technology executives to explore the trends defining the future of the channel ecosystem. Don't miss the opportunity to gain deeper intelligence on platform strategies, marketplace dynamics, and the evolving services multiplier and insights that could determine your competitive position for the next decade. 

Register now at Canalys Forums | Omdia to secure your place and connect with the industry's most forward-thinking leaders as we chart the course through this pivotal inflection point.