Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2017-086

The Effect of Interest Rates on Home Buying: Evidence from a Discontinuity in Mortgage Insurance Premiums

Accessible version of figures

Figure 1: Treatment Group Share of Home Purchase Loans by Week of Rate Lock

Note: Treatment group defined as borrowers with a FICO score less than 680 and an LTV above 80 percent.

Source: Optimal Blue

week Treatment Group Share Date
2014w1 0.185 1-Jan-14
2014w2 0.181 8-Jan-14
2014w3 0.173 15-Jan-14
2014w4 0.172 22-Jan-14
2014w5 0.175 29-Jan-14
2014w6 0.177 5-Feb-14
2014w7 0.186 12-Feb-14
2014w8 0.188 19-Feb-14
2014w9 0.184 26-Feb-14
2014w10 0.196 5-Mar-14
2014w11 0.186 12-Mar-14
2014w12 0.191 19-Mar-14
2014w13 0.185 26-Mar-14
2014w14 0.181 2-Apr-14
2014w15 0.175 9-Apr-14
2014w16 0.183 16-Apr-14
2014w17 0.179 23-Apr-14
2014w18 0.177 30-Apr-14
2014w19 0.180 7-May-14
2014w20 0.177 14-May-14
2014w21 0.183 21-May-14
2014w22 0.174 28-May-14
2014w23 0.183 4-Jun-14
2014w24 0.182 11-Jun-14
2014w25 0.175 18-Jun-14
2014w26 0.171 25-Jun-14
2014w27 0.181 2-Jul-14
2014w28 0.181 9-Jul-14
2014w29 0.183 16-Jul-14
2014w30 0.177 23-Jul-14
2014w31 0.179 30-Jul-14
2014w32 0.183 6-Aug-14
2014w33 0.180 13-Aug-14
2014w34 0.188 20-Aug-14
2014w35 0.175 27-Aug-14
2014w36 0.189 3-Sep-14
2014w37 0.188 10-Sep-14
2014w38 0.182 17-Sep-14
2014w39 0.189 24-Sep-14
2014w40 0.181 1-Oct-14
2014w41 0.176 8-Oct-14
2014w42 0.182 15-Oct-14
2014w43 0.187 22-Oct-14
2014w44 0.188 29-Oct-14
2014w45 0.186 5-Nov-14
2014w46 0.179 12-Nov-14
2014w47 0.189 19-Nov-14
2014w48 0.174 26-Nov-14
2014w49 0.195 3-Dec-14
2014w50 0.185 10-Dec-14
2014w51 0.188 17-Dec-14
2014w52 0.187 24-Dec-14
2015w1 0.176 1-Jan-15
2015w2 0.166 8-Jan-15
2015w3 0.178 15-Jan-15
2015w4 0.186 22-Jan-15
2015w5 0.187 29-Jan-15
2015w6 0.205 5-Feb-15
2015w7 0.200 12-Feb-15
2015w8 0.204 19-Feb-15
2015w9 0.201 26-Feb-15
2015w10 0.203 5-Mar-15
2015w11 0.197 12-Mar-15
2015w12 0.197 19-Mar-15
2015w13 0.198 26-Mar-15
2015w14 0.190 2-Apr-15
2015w15 0.199 9-Apr-15
2015w16 0.192 16-Apr-15
2015w17 0.197 23-Apr-15
2015w18 0.193 30-Apr-15
2015w19 0.193 7-May-15
2015w20 0.189 14-May-15
2015w21 0.192 21-May-15
2015w22 0.184 28-May-15
2015w23 0.193 4-Jun-15
2015w24 0.189 11-Jun-15
2015w25 0.194 18-Jun-15
2015w26 0.190 25-Jun-15
2015w27 0.193 2-Jul-15
2015w28 0.198 9-Jul-15
2015w29 0.190 16-Jul-15
2015w30 0.192 23-Jul-15
2015w31 0.195 30-Jul-15
2015w32 0.199 6-Aug-15
2015w33 0.205 13-Aug-15
2015w34 0.202 20-Aug-15
2015w35 0.204 27-Aug-15
2015w36 0.204 3-Sep-15
2015w37 0.200 10-Sep-15
2015w38 0.208 17-Sep-15
2015w39 0.209 24-Sep-15
2015w40 0.195 1-Oct-15

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Figure 2: Mortgage Rate and FHA Premium, 2001-2015

Source: Freddie Mac and HUD.

date Prime Mortgage Rate FHA Annual Premium
2001m1 7.032 50
2001m2 7.050 50
2001m3 6.952 50
2001m4 7.077 50
2001m5 7.145 50
2001m6 7.160 50
2001m7 7.128 50
2001m8 6.950 50
2001m9 6.818 50
2001m10 6.617 50
2001m11 6.658 50
2001m12 7.065 50
2002m1 6.997 50
2002m2 6.892 50
2002m3 7.014 50
2002m4 6.985 50
2002m5 6.806 50
2002m6 6.650 50
2002m7 6.485 50
2002m8 6.290 50
2002m9 6.093 50
2002m10 6.113 50
2002m11 6.068 50
2002m12 6.048 50
2003m1 5.916 50
2003m2 5.843 50
2003m3 5.745 50
2003m4 5.813 50
2003m5 5.484 50
2003m6 5.230 50
2003m7 5.633 50
2003m8 6.264 50
2003m9 6.148 50
2003m10 5.952 50
2003m11 5.932 50
2003m12 5.883 50
2004m1 5.740 50
2004m2 5.635 50
2004m3 5.445 50
2004m4 5.830 50
2004m5 6.270 50
2004m6 6.287 50
2004m7 6.056 50
2004m8 5.867 50
2004m9 5.754 50
2004m10 5.722 50
2004m11 5.730 50
2004m12 5.752 50
2005m1 5.710 50
2005m2 5.628 50
2005m3 5.928 50
2005m4 5.855 50
2005m5 5.720 50
2005m6 5.582 50
2005m7 5.695 50
2005m8 5.820 50
2005m9 5.774 50
2005m10 6.065 50
2005m11 6.330 50
2005m12 6.272 50
2006m1 6.145 50
2006m2 6.253 50
2006m3 6.324 50
2006m4 6.508 50
2006m5 6.597 50
2006m6 6.682 50
2006m7 6.762 50
2006m8 6.524 50
2006m9 6.403 50
2006m10 6.358 50
2006m11 6.240 50
2006m12 6.135 50
2007m1 6.218 50
2007m2 6.285 50
2007m3 6.156 50
2007m4 6.180 50
2007m5 6.262 50
2007m6 6.657 50
2007m7 6.695 50
2007m8 6.572 50
2007m9 6.383 50
2007m10 6.375 50
2007m11 6.208 50
2007m12 6.095 50
2008m1 5.758 50
2008m2 5.918 50
2008m3 5.970 50
2008m4 5.918 50
2008m5 6.036 50
2008m6 6.320 50
2008m7 6.426 50
2008m8 6.478 50
2008m9 6.037 50
2008m10 6.200 50
2008m11 6.088 55
2008m12 5.333 55
2009m1 5.058 55
2009m2 5.130 55
2009m3 5.003 55
2009m4 4.810 55
2009m5 4.858 55
2009m6 5.420 55
2009m7 5.222 55
2009m8 5.193 55
2009m9 5.057 55
2009m10 4.952 55
2009m11 4.875 55
2009m12 4.930 55
2010m1 5.030 55
2010m2 4.990 55
2010m3 4.968 55
2010m4 5.098 55
2010m5 4.887 55
2010m6 4.738 55
2010m7 4.564 55
2010m8 4.427 55
2010m9 4.346 55
2010m10 4.225 90
2010m11 4.300 90
2010m12 4.714 90
2011m1 4.755 90
2011m2 4.952 90
2011m3 4.836 90
2011m4 4.840 90
2011m5 4.637 115
2011m6 4.510 115
2011m7 4.545 115
2011m8 4.270 115
2011m9 4.106 115
2011m10 4.068 115
2011m11 3.993 115
2011m12 3.958 115
2012m1 3.915 115
2012m2 3.890 115
2012m3 3.954 115
2012m4 3.910 115
2012m5 3.798 125
2012m6 3.675 125
2012m7 3.550 125
2012m8 3.602 125
2012m9 3.497 125
2012m10 3.382 125
2012m11 3.352 125
2012m12 3.345 125
2013m1 3.414 125
2013m2 3.533 125
2013m3 3.565 125
2013m4 3.445 135
2013m5 3.536 135
2013m6 4.070 135
2013m7 4.370 135
2013m8 4.456 135
2013m9 4.490 135
2013m10 4.192 135
2013m11 4.255 135
2013m12 4.458 135
2014m1 4.432 135
2014m2 4.302 135
2014m3 4.343 135
2014m4 4.338 135
2014m5 4.192 135
2014m6 4.162 135
2014m7 4.130 135
2014m8 4.115 135
2014m9 4.162 135
2014m10 4.036 135
2014m11 3.997 135
2014m12 3.863 135
2015m1 3.710 135
2015m2 3.710 85
2015m3 3.770 85
2015m4 3.672 85
2015m5 3.840 85
2015m6 3.983 85
2015m7 4.046 85
2015m8 3.905 85
2015m9 3.890 85
2015m10 3.796 85
2015m11 3.943 85
2015m12 3.964 85
2016m1 3.872 85
2016m2 3.660 85
2016m3 3.694 85
2016m4 3.605 85
2016m5 3.600 85
2016m6 3.568 85
2016m7 3.440 85
2016m8 3.435 85
2016m9 3.460 85
2016m10 3.470 85
2016m11 3.793 85
2016m12 4.198 85

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Figure 3: Count of Home Purchase Loan Originations for 1- to 4-Family, Owner-Occupied Properties, by Week of Loan Application

Source: Data reported under HMDA.

week Originations date
2012w16 40564 15-Apr-12
2012w17 53650 22-Apr-12
2012w18 56441 29-Apr-12
2012w19 54801 6-May-12
2012w20 52414 13-May-12
2012w21 51318 20-May-12
2012w22 45442 27-May-12
2012w23 54009 3-Jun-12
2012w24 51124 10-Jun-12
2012w25 49979 17-Jun-12
2012w26 50985 24-Jun-12
2012w27 41709 1-Jul-12
2012w28 51973 8-Jul-12
2012w29 50241 15-Jul-12
2012w30 48773 22-Jul-12
2012w31 48626 29-Jul-12
2012w32 47478 5-Aug-12
2012w33 45843 12-Aug-12
2012w34 45794 19-Aug-12
2012w35 44649 26-Aug-12
2012w36 39672 2-Sep-12
2012w37 45222 9-Sep-12
2012w38 44671 16-Sep-12
2012w39 44938 23-Sep-12
2012w40 45751 30-Sep-12
2012w41 41598 7-Oct-12
2012w42 43093 14-Oct-12
2012w43 42106 21-Oct-12
2012w44 39393 28-Oct-12
2012w45 42079 4-Nov-12
2012w46 38807 11-Nov-12
2012w47 27323 18-Nov-12
2012w48 39446 25-Nov-12
2012w49 38621 2-Dec-12
2012w50 34642 9-Dec-12
2012w51 32502 16-Dec-12
2012w52 22523 23-Dec-12
2013w1 31918 1-Jan-13
2013w2 40128 8-Jan-13
2013w3 37340 15-Jan-13
2013w4 47465 22-Jan-13
2013w5 47975 29-Jan-13
2013w6 48952 5-Feb-13
2013w7 44618 12-Feb-13
2013w8 54360 19-Feb-13
2013w9 55826 26-Feb-13
2013w10 56344 5-Mar-13
2013w11 57196 12-Mar-13
2013w12 59270 19-Mar-13
2013w13 58781 26-Mar-13
2013w14 60303 2-Apr-13
2013w15 61355 9-Apr-13
2013w16 62941 16-Apr-13
2013w17 63761 23-Apr-13
2013w18 66402 30-Apr-13
2013w19 63433 7-May-13
2013w20 61822 14-May-13
2013w21 48558 21-May-13
2013w22 68468 28-May-13
2013w23 63178 4-Jun-13
2013w24 61642 11-Jun-13
2013w25 59906 18-Jun-13
2013w26 60766 25-Jun-13
2013w27 45630 2-Jul-13
2013w28 59650 9-Jul-13
2013w29 57877 16-Jul-13
2013w30 55304 23-Jul-13
2013w31 55346 30-Jul-13
2013w32 54669 6-Aug-13
2013w33 51399 13-Aug-13
2013w34 50753 20-Aug-13
2013w35 39551 27-Aug-13
2013w36 53348 3-Sep-13
2013w37 49127 10-Sep-13
2013w38 48413 17-Sep-13
2013w39 48381 24-Sep-13
2013w40 48029 1-Oct-13
2013w41 41688 8-Oct-13
2013w42 47525 15-Oct-13
2013w43 45272 22-Oct-13
2013w44 44569 29-Oct-13
2013w45 39614 5-Nov-13
2013w46 45628 12-Nov-13
2013w47 42903 19-Nov-13
2013w48 26846 26-Nov-13
2013w49 37837 3-Dec-13
2013w50 34639 10-Dec-13
2013w51 32237 17-Dec-13
2013w52 23920 24-Dec-13
2014w1 30789 1-Jan-14
2014w2 41088 8-Jan-14
2014w3 37774 15-Jan-14
2014w4 46905 22-Jan-14
2014w5 46656 29-Jan-14
2014w6 48614 5-Feb-14
2014w7 43163 12-Feb-14
2014w8 53339 19-Feb-14
2014w9 55860 26-Feb-14
2014w10 56514 5-Mar-14
2014w11 58618 12-Mar-14
2014w12 59051 19-Mar-14
2014w13 59730 26-Mar-14
2014w14 65361 2-Apr-14
2014w15 64748 9-Apr-14
2014w16 61313 16-Apr-14
2014w17 64492 23-Apr-14
2014w18 68754 30-Apr-14
2014w19 66919 7-May-14
2014w20 66467 14-May-14
2014w21 52214 21-May-14
2014w22 70623 28-May-14
2014w23 66104 4-Jun-14
2014w24 63173 11-Jun-14
2014w25 62066 18-Jun-14
2014w26 63399 25-Jun-14
2014w27 51462 2-Jul-14
2014w28 61668 9-Jul-14
2014w29 60115 16-Jul-14
2014w30 59411 23-Jul-14
2014w31 59443 30-Jul-14
2014w32 58044 6-Aug-14
2014w33 56276 13-Aug-14
2014w34 54641 20-Aug-14
2014w35 44789 27-Aug-14
2014w36 57969 3-Sep-14
2014w37 53522 10-Sep-14
2014w38 51415 17-Sep-14
2014w39 51346 24-Sep-14
2014w40 54013 1-Oct-14
2014w41 49238 8-Oct-14
2014w42 52734 15-Oct-14
2014w43 50084 22-Oct-14
2014w44 48770 29-Oct-14
2014w45 45901 5-Nov-14
2014w46 50437 12-Nov-14
2014w47 46646 19-Nov-14
2014w48 30600 26-Nov-14
2014w49 42083 3-Dec-14
2014w50 38632 10-Dec-14
2014w51 36499 17-Dec-14
2014w52 25720 24-Dec-14
2015w1 35677 1-Jan-15
2015w2 46904 8-Jan-15
2015w3 47501 15-Jan-15
2015w4 55332 22-Jan-15
2015w5 57905 29-Jan-15
2015w6 59172 5-Feb-15
2015w7 55072 12-Feb-15
2015w8 62485 19-Feb-15
2015w9 64464 26-Feb-15
2015w10 65110 5-Mar-15
2015w11 68807 12-Mar-15
2015w12 71599 19-Mar-15
2015w13 73219 26-Mar-15
2015w14 71787 2-Apr-15
2015w15 74746 9-Apr-15
2015w16 78059 16-Apr-15
2015w17 78149 23-Apr-15
2015w18 78595 30-Apr-15
2015w19 76652 7-May-15
2015w20 74703 14-May-15
2015w21 61694 21-May-15
2015w22 79265 28-May-15
2015w23 73787 4-Jun-15
2015w24 72197 11-Jun-15
2015w25 70362 18-Jun-15
2015w26 70308 25-Jun-15
2015w27 60627 2-Jul-15
2015w28 67434 9-Jul-15
2015w29 66936 16-Jul-15
2015w30 66394 23-Jul-15
2015w31 65560 30-Jul-15
2015w32 64228 6-Aug-15
2015w33 61395 13-Aug-15
2015w34 62049 20-Aug-15
2015w35 60679 27-Aug-15
2015w36 48649 3-Sep-15
2015w37 59500 10-Sep-15
2015w38 54892 17-Sep-15
2015w39 57751 24-Sep-15
2015w40 54372 1-Oct-15
2015w41 42829 8-Oct-15
2015w42 47117 15-Oct-15
2015w43 45046 22-Oct-15
2015w44 41604 29-Oct-15
2015w45 34968 5-Nov-15
2015w46 32642 12-Nov-15
2015w47 21390 19-Nov-15
2015w48 8810 26-Nov-15
2015w49 4933 3-Dec-15
2015w50 1153 10-Dec-15
2015w51 226 17-Dec-15
2015w52 37 24-Dec-15

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Figure 4: FHA Share of Home Purchase Loans by Week of Loan Application

Source: Data reported under HMDA.

week FHA Share date
2014w1 0.218 1-Jan-14
2014w2 0.213 8-Jan-14
2014w3 0.218 15-Jan-14
2014w4 0.212 22-Jan-14
2014w5 0.216 29-Jan-14
2014w6 0.224 5-Feb-14
2014w7 0.226 12-Feb-14
2014w8 0.224 19-Feb-14
2014w9 0.224 26-Feb-14
2014w10 0.226 5-Mar-14
2014w11 0.221 12-Mar-14
2014w12 0.222 19-Mar-14
2014w13 0.216 26-Mar-14
2014w14 0.216 2-Apr-14
2014w15 0.209 9-Apr-14
2014w16 0.211 16-Apr-14
2014w17 0.207 23-Apr-14
2014w18 0.209 30-Apr-14
2014w19 0.206 7-May-14
2014w20 0.205 14-May-14
2014w21 0.204 21-May-14
2014w22 0.205 28-May-14
2014w23 0.208 4-Jun-14
2014w24 0.209 11-Jun-14
2014w25 0.209 18-Jun-14
2014w26 0.205 25-Jun-14
2014w27 0.209 2-Jul-14
2014w28 0.205 9-Jul-14
2014w29 0.206 16-Jul-14
2014w30 0.207 23-Jul-14
2014w31 0.214 30-Jul-14
2014w32 0.209 6-Aug-14
2014w33 0.209 13-Aug-14
2014w34 0.210 20-Aug-14
2014w35 0.206 27-Aug-14
2014w36 0.212 3-Sep-14
2014w37 0.216 10-Sep-14
2014w38 0.215 17-Sep-14
2014w39 0.216 24-Sep-14
2014w40 0.217 1-Oct-14
2014w41 0.216 8-Oct-14
2014w42 0.212 15-Oct-14
2014w43 0.216 22-Oct-14
2014w44 0.221 29-Oct-14
2014w45 0.227 5-Nov-14
2014w46 0.214 12-Nov-14
2014w47 0.218 19-Nov-14
2014w48 0.215 26-Nov-14
2014w49 0.227 3-Dec-14
2014w50 0.221 10-Dec-14
2014w51 0.217 17-Dec-14
2014w52 0.217 24-Dec-14
2015w1 0.216 1-Jan-15
2015w2 0.217 8-Jan-15
2015w3 0.235 15-Jan-15
2015w4 0.251 22-Jan-15
2015w5 0.259 29-Jan-15
2015w6 0.261 5-Feb-15
2015w7 0.268 12-Feb-15
2015w8 0.270 19-Feb-15
2015w9 0.270 26-Feb-15
2015w10 0.273 5-Mar-15
2015w11 0.267 12-Mar-15
2015w12 0.261 19-Mar-15
2015w13 0.260 26-Mar-15
2015w14 0.261 2-Apr-15
2015w15 0.254 9-Apr-15
2015w16 0.258 16-Apr-15
2015w17 0.257 23-Apr-15
2015w18 0.256 30-Apr-15
2015w19 0.254 7-May-15
2015w20 0.254 14-May-15
2015w21 0.256 21-May-15
2015w22 0.256 28-May-15
2015w23 0.255 4-Jun-15
2015w24 0.254 11-Jun-15
2015w25 0.256 18-Jun-15
2015w26 0.262 25-Jun-15
2015w27 0.257 2-Jul-15
2015w28 0.263 9-Jul-15
2015w29 0.261 16-Jul-15
2015w30 0.260 23-Jul-15
2015w31 0.264 30-Jul-15
2015w32 0.263 6-Aug-15
2015w33 0.261 13-Aug-15
2015w34 0.264 20-Aug-15
2015w35 0.264 27-Aug-15
2015w36 0.266 3-Sep-15
2015w37 0.267 10-Sep-15
2015w38 0.256 17-Sep-15
2015w39 0.262 24-Sep-15
2015w40 0.254 1-Oct-15

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Figure 5: Treatment Group Share of Home Purchase Loans by Week of Loan Application (HMDA/McDash Merge)

Source: McDash Analytics and data reported under HMDA.

week Treatment Group Share Date
2013w50 0.138 10-Dec-13
2013w51 0.131 17-Dec-13
2013w52 0.131 24-Dec-13
2014w1 0.131 1-Jan-14
2014w2 0.126 8-Jan-14
2014w3 0.129 15-Jan-14
2014w4 0.126 22-Jan-14
2014w5 0.130 29-Jan-14
2014w6 0.136 5-Feb-14
2014w7 0.141 12-Feb-14
2014w8 0.133 19-Feb-14
2014w9 0.139 26-Feb-14
2014w10 0.140 5-Mar-14
2014w11 0.137 12-Mar-14
2014w12 0.136 19-Mar-14
2014w13 0.139 26-Mar-14
2014w14 0.131 2-Apr-14
2014w15 0.131 9-Apr-14
2014w16 0.133 16-Apr-14
2014w17 0.129 23-Apr-14
2014w18 0.130 30-Apr-14
2014w19 0.126 7-May-14
2014w20 0.119 14-May-14
2014w21 0.127 21-May-14
2014w22 0.127 28-May-14
2014w23 0.126 4-Jun-14
2014w24 0.127 11-Jun-14
2014w25 0.128 18-Jun-14
2014w26 0.123 25-Jun-14
2014w27 0.126 2-Jul-14
2014w28 0.127 9-Jul-14
2014w29 0.128 16-Jul-14
2014w30 0.124 23-Jul-14
2014w31 0.137 30-Jul-14
2014w32 0.128 6-Aug-14
2014w33 0.128 13-Aug-14
2014w34 0.127 20-Aug-14
2014w35 0.124 27-Aug-14
2014w36 0.133 3-Sep-14
2014w37 0.131 10-Sep-14
2014w38 0.138 17-Sep-14
2014w39 0.135 24-Sep-14
2014w40 0.137 1-Oct-14
2014w41 0.135 8-Oct-14
2014w42 0.136 15-Oct-14
2014w43 0.139 22-Oct-14
2014w44 0.140 29-Oct-14
2014w45 0.142 5-Nov-14
2014w46 0.136 12-Nov-14
2014w47 0.137 19-Nov-14
2014w48 0.134 26-Nov-14
2014w49 0.141 3-Dec-14
2014w50 0.140 10-Dec-14
2014w51 0.137 17-Dec-14
2014w52 0.143 24-Dec-14
2015w1 0.135 1-Jan-15
2015w2 0.136 8-Jan-15
2015w3 0.143 15-Jan-15
2015w4 0.145 22-Jan-15
2015w5 0.158 29-Jan-15
2015w6 0.158 5-Feb-15
2015w7 0.158 12-Feb-15
2015w8 0.153 19-Feb-15
2015w9 0.160 26-Feb-15
2015w10 0.152 5-Mar-15
2015w11 0.151 12-Mar-15
2015w12 0.147 19-Mar-15
2015w13 0.149 26-Mar-15
2015w14 0.151 2-Apr-15
2015w15 0.140 9-Apr-15
2015w16 0.146 16-Apr-15
2015w17 0.143 23-Apr-15
2015w18 0.143 30-Apr-15
2015w19 0.139 7-May-15
2015w20 0.142 14-May-15
2015w21 0.141 21-May-15
2015w22 0.140 28-May-15
2015w23 0.140 4-Jun-15
2015w24 0.133 11-Jun-15
2015w25 0.134 18-Jun-15
2015w26 0.143 25-Jun-15
2015w27 0.144 2-Jul-15
2015w28 0.139 9-Jul-15
2015w29 0.141 16-Jul-15
2015w30 0.143 23-Jul-15
2015w31 0.148 30-Jul-15
2015w32 0.141 6-Aug-15
2015w33 0.143 13-Aug-15
2015w34 0.141 20-Aug-15
2015w35 0.140 27-Aug-15
2015w36 0.141 3-Sep-15
2015w37 0.138 10-Sep-15
2015w38 0.138 17-Sep-15
2015w39 0.140 24-Sep-15
2015w40 0.135 1-Oct-15
2015w41 0.140 8-Oct-15
2015w42 0.139 15-Oct-15
2015w43 0.132 22-Oct-15

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Figure 6: Average Time between Loan Application and Case Number Assignment, by Week of Loan Application

Source: HUD.

week Days between Loan Application and Case Number Assignment
2011w19 10.64
2011w20 10.99
2011w21 11.61
2011w22 10.00
2011w23 11.17
2011w24 10.77
2011w25 10.22
2011w26 10.67
2011w27 9.77
2011w28 10.67
2011w29 9.79
2011w30 9.67
2011w31 9.92
2011w32 10.70
2011w33 11.07
2011w34 10.50
2011w35 10.34
2011w36 10.03
2011w37 10.78
2011w38 10.33
2011w39 11.44
2011w40 10.64
2011w41 11.32
2011w42 11.62
2011w43 10.88
2011w44 10.19
2011w45 11.22
2011w46 10.89
2011w47 11.14
2011w48 9.31
2011w49 10.98
2011w50 10.23
2011w51 8.84
2011w52 10.40
2012w1 13.07
2012w2 13.12
2012w3 12.76
2012w4 12.71
2012w5 11.94
2012w6 12.71
2012w7 11.71
2012w8 12.03
2012w9 10.17
2012w10 10.43
2012w11 10.29
2012w12 9.07
2012w13 8.35
2012w14 6.51
2012w15 9.82
2012w16 10.91
2012w17 11.26
2012w18 9.77
2012w19 9.98
2012w20 10.26
2012w21 10.43
2012w22 9.98
2012w23 10.31
2012w24 9.85
2012w25 9.12
2012w26 9.33
2012w27 9.26
2012w28 9.61
2012w29 9.60
2012w30 8.80
2012w31 8.34
2012w32 8.84
2012w33 9.87
2012w34 9.37
2012w35 8.64
2012w36 8.21
2012w37 9.23
2012w38 9.05
2012w39 8.91
2012w40 8.99
2012w41 9.39
2012w42 8.87
2012w43 9.71
2012w44 8.59
2012w45 8.84
2012w46 9.70
2012w47 8.65
2012w48 8.11
2012w49 9.11
2012w50 9.21
2012w51 9.18
2012w52 8.32
2013w1 9.87
2013w2 10.13
2013w3 10.41
2013w4 10.26
2013w5 9.72
2013w6 8.99
2013w7 9.18
2013w8 8.11
2013w9 7.78
2013w10 8.26
2013w11 7.04
2013w12 6.62
2013w13 5.08
2013w14 8.27
2013w15 8.24
2013w16 7.58
2013w17 7.43
2013w18 6.69
2013w19 6.16
2013w20 6.13
2013w21 5.93
2013w22 4.01
2013w23 5.89
2013w24 6.84
2013w25 6.54
2013w26 6.20
2013w27 6.68
2013w28 5.27
2013w29 5.20
2013w30 5.24
2013w31 4.86
2013w32 5.58
2013w33 5.46
2013w34 5.46
2013w35 5.78
2013w36 5.31
2013w37 5.95
2013w38 5.40
2013w39 5.46
2013w40 4.75
2013w41 5.27
2013w42 6.67
2013w43 5.96
2013w44 6.31
2013w45 5.90
2013w46 6.44
2013w47 6.65
2013w48 6.21
2013w49 5.09
2013w50 5.50
2013w51 6.29
2013w52 6.21
2014w1 7.84
2014w2 9.38
2014w3 10.18
2014w4 8.98
2014w5 8.75
2014w6 8.25
2014w7 9.39
2014w8 8.05
2014w9 9.48
2014w10 9.10
2014w11 9.62
2014w12 9.03
2014w13 8.49
2014w14 8.71
2014w15 8.20
2014w16 8.59
2014w17 8.62
2014w18 9.16
2014w19 8.40
2014w20 8.24
2014w21 8.33
2014w22 7.95
2014w23 7.88
2014w24 8.24
2014w25 7.65
2014w26 8.03
2014w27 7.81
2014w28 7.36
2014w29 8.15
2014w30 7.96
2014w31 7.02
2014w32 7.32
2014w33 7.80
2014w34 8.26
2014w35 7.86
2014w36 7.75
2014w37 7.73
2014w38 8.33
2014w39 8.47
2014w40 8.93
2014w41 8.65
2014w42 9.37
2014w43 9.93
2014w44 10.33
2014w45 11.69
2014w46 11.73
2014w47 13.78
2014w48 12.50
2014w49 15.91
2014w50 18.51
2014w51 21.35
2014w52 22.00
2015w1 23.35
2015w2 23.16
2015w3 19.17
2015w4 14.61
2015w5 13.04
2015w6 13.16
2015w7 12.17
2015w8 11.33
2015w9 11.24
2015w10 11.11
2015w11 11.02
2015w12 10.12
2015w13 9.37
2015w14 9.16
2015w15 8.98
2015w16 8.71
2015w17 7.74
2015w18 7.13

Return to text


Figure 7: Treatment Group Share of Withdrawn Home Purchase Applications, by Week of Loan Application

Source: Data collected under HMDA and Optimal Blue

week treatment group share date
2013w50 0.076 10-Dec-13
2013w51 0.102 17-Dec-13
2013w52 0.100 24-Dec-13
2014w1 0.090 1-Jan-14
2014w2 0.103 8-Jan-14
2014w3 0.089 15-Jan-14
2014w4 0.115 22-Jan-14
2014w5 0.088 29-Jan-14
2014w6 0.076 5-Feb-14
2014w7 0.061 12-Feb-14
2014w8 0.075 19-Feb-14
2014w9 0.053 26-Feb-14
2014w10 0.065 5-Mar-14
2014w11 0.113 12-Mar-14
2014w12 0.077 19-Mar-14
2014w13 0.091 26-Mar-14
2014w14 0.099 2-Apr-14
2014w15 0.092 9-Apr-14
2014w16 0.092 16-Apr-14
2014w17 0.106 23-Apr-14
2014w18 0.103 30-Apr-14
2014w19 0.085 7-May-14
2014w20 0.088 14-May-14
2014w21 0.095 21-May-14
2014w22 0.086 28-May-14
2014w23 0.085 4-Jun-14
2014w24 0.091 11-Jun-14
2014w25 0.091 18-Jun-14
2014w26 0.091 25-Jun-14
2014w27 0.084 2-Jul-14
2014w28 0.090 9-Jul-14
2014w29 0.082 16-Jul-14
2014w30 0.080 23-Jul-14
2014w31 0.092 30-Jul-14
2014w32 0.087 6-Aug-14
2014w33 0.095 13-Aug-14
2014w34 0.093 20-Aug-14
2014w35 0.084 27-Aug-14
2014w36 0.096 3-Sep-14
2014w37 0.087 10-Sep-14
2014w38 0.073 17-Sep-14
2014w39 0.103 24-Sep-14
2014w40 0.094 1-Oct-14
2014w41 0.099 8-Oct-14
2014w42 0.080 15-Oct-14
2014w43 0.099 22-Oct-14
2014w44 0.099 29-Oct-14
2014w45 0.090 5-Nov-14
2014w46 0.080 12-Nov-14
2014w47 0.085 19-Nov-14
2014w48 0.071 26-Nov-14
2014w49 0.079 3-Dec-14
2014w50 0.106 10-Dec-14
2014w51 0.097 17-Dec-14
2014w52 0.099 24-Dec-14
2015w1 0.082 1-Jan-15
2015w2 0.095 8-Jan-15
2015w3 0.077 15-Jan-15
2015w4 0.089 22-Jan-15
2015w5 0.081 29-Jan-15
2015w6 0.076 5-Feb-15
2015w7 0.073 12-Feb-15
2015w8 0.071 19-Feb-15
2015w9 0.080 26-Feb-15
2015w10 0.080 5-Mar-15
2015w11 0.084 12-Mar-15
2015w12 0.066 19-Mar-15
2015w13 0.078 26-Mar-15
2015w14 0.080 2-Apr-15
2015w15 0.064 9-Apr-15
2015w16 0.074 16-Apr-15
2015w17 0.064 23-Apr-15
2015w18 0.081 30-Apr-15
2015w19 0.089 7-May-15
2015w20 0.094 14-May-15
2015w21 0.084 21-May-15
2015w22 0.103 28-May-15
2015w23 0.095 4-Jun-15
2015w24 0.079 11-Jun-15
2015w25 0.095 18-Jun-15
2015w26 0.083 25-Jun-15
2015w27 0.089 2-Jul-15
2015w28 0.094 9-Jul-15
2015w29 0.084 16-Jul-15
2015w30 0.101 23-Jul-15
2015w31 0.089 30-Jul-15
2015w32 0.095 6-Aug-15
2015w33 0.082 13-Aug-15
2015w34 0.100 20-Aug-15
2015w35 0.099 27-Aug-15
2015w36 0.108 3-Sep-15
2015w37 0.085 10-Sep-15
2015w38 0.089 17-Sep-15
2015w39 0.098 24-Sep-15
2015w40 0.097 1-Oct-15
2015w41 0.085 8-Oct-15
2015w42 0.084 15-Oct-15
2015w43 0.080 22-Oct-15

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Figure 8: Continuity of Other Economic Indicators

date Unemployment Rate S&P 500 1 Year Treasury Yield 10 Year Treasury Yield
2014-01-03   1831.68 0.15 3.04
2014-01-10   1836.53 0.16 2.99
2014-01-17   1838.21 0.14 2.9
2014-01-24   1826.85 0.14 2.85
2014-01-31 6.6 1785.01 0.14 2.77
2014-02-07   1763.84 0.14 2.72
2014-02-14   1821.46 0.14 2.78
2014-02-21   1836.39 0.12 2.78
2014-02-28 6.7 1850.33 0.12 2.73
2014-03-07   1869.7 0.13 2.75
2014-03-14   1860.09 0.13 2.75
2014-03-21   1866.08 0.14 2.77
2014-03-28   1856.46 0.14 2.76
2014-03-31 6.7      
2014-04-04   1880.52 0.12 2.81
2014-04-11   1843.59 0.1 2.71
2014-04-18   1850.19 0.1 2.7
2014-04-25   1873.77 0.1 2.74
2014-04-30 6.2      
2014-05-02   1879.31 0.1 2.7
2014-05-09   1876.94 0.1 2.64
2014-05-16   1886.27 0.09 2.58
2014-05-23   1887.79 0.09 2.56
2014-05-30   1916.32 0.1 2.5
2014-05-31 6.3      
2014-06-06   1933.4 0.11 2.62
2014-06-13   1942.44 0.12 2.65
2014-06-20   1951.82 0.14 2.66
2014-06-27   1958.06 0.12 2.6
2014-06-30 6.1      
2014-07-04   1973.4 0.13 2.63
2014-07-11   1969.29 0.13 2.6
2014-07-18   1973.66 0.13 2.56
2014-07-25   1982.1 0.13 2.52
2014-07-31 6.2      
2014-08-01   1954.95 0.13 2.56
2014-08-08   1924.12 0.12 2.51
2014-08-15   1945.53 0.13 2.45
2014-08-22   1984.12 0.14 2.45
2014-08-29   1999.63 0.13 2.41
2014-08-31 6.2      
2014-09-05   2002.09 0.14 2.48
2014-09-12   1993.73 0.14 2.57
2014-09-19   2001.29 0.15 2.65
2014-09-26   1984.84 0.13 2.59
2014-09-30 5.9      
2014-10-03   1962.06 0.14 2.5
2014-10-10   1940.63 0.12 2.4
2014-10-17   1872.89 0.11 2.23
2014-10-24   1937.56 0.12 2.3
2014-10-31 5.7 1988.34 0.14 2.37
2014-11-07   2023.32 0.16 2.4
2014-11-14   2039.07 0.17 2.4
2014-11-21   2051.62 0.17 2.39
2014-11-28   2069.21 0.16 2.3
2014-11-30 5.8      
2014-12-05   2068.32 0.18 2.31
2014-12-12   2036.79 0.24 2.22
2014-12-19   2021.43 0.27 2.18
2014-12-26   2082.84 0.34 2.27
2014-12-31 5.6      
2015-01-02   2072.01 0.3 2.21
2015-01-09   2031.21 0.26 2.02
2015-01-16   2014.93 0.21 1.9
2015-01-23   2042.41 0.21 1.9
2015-01-30   2021.01 0.2 1.82
2015-01-31 5.7      
2015-02-06   2046.08 0.23 1.87
2015-02-13   2073.87 0.26 2.05
2015-02-20   2101.94 0.27 2.18
2015-02-27   2110.85 0.26 2.08
2015-02-28 5.5      
2015-03-06   2099.2 0.28 2.19
2015-03-13   2056.64 0.31 2.19
2015-03-20   2090.47 0.32 2.05
2015-03-27   2074.83 0.31 1.99
2015-03-31 5.4      
2015-04-03   2070.2 0.28 1.96
2015-04-10   2086.42 0.26 1.98
2015-04-17   2096.21 0.26 1.95
2015-04-24   2107.25 0.27 1.99
2015-04-30 5.4      
2015-05-01   2104.87 0.28 2.09
2015-05-08   2097.64 0.29 2.24
2015-05-15   2109.35 0.28 2.3
2015-05-22   2127.95 0.29 2.3
2015-05-29   2113.97 0.3 2.2
2015-05-31 5.5      
2015-06-05   2104.81 0.32 2.38
2015-06-12   2093.52 0.36 2.48
2015-06-19   2102.48 0.34 2.38
2015-06-26   2111.89 0.33 2.47
2015-06-30 5.3      
2015-07-03   2068.74 0.31 2.43
2015-07-10   2064.94 0.3 2.35
2015-07-17   2113.38 0.32 2.42
2015-07-24   2108.69 0.35 2.34
2015-07-31 5.2 2096.39 0.35 2.27
2015-08-07   2090.47 0.4 2.23
2015-08-14   2089.85 0.41 2.21
2015-08-21   2057.12 0.42 2.16
2015-08-28   1935.57 0.4 2.2
2015-08-31 5.1      
2015-09-04   1941.45 0.43 2.23
2015-09-11   1956.2 0.44 2.25
2015-09-18   1974.93 0.47 2.27
2015-09-25   1942.41 0.38 2.2
2015-09-30 5      
2015-10-02   1912.21 0.36 2.08
2015-10-09   1998.22 0.35 2.12
2015-10-16   2014.47 0.34 2.06
2015-10-23   2042.21 0.36 2.1
2015-10-30   2079.24 0.42 2.16
2015-10-31 5      
2015-11-06   2103.06 0.52 2.3
2015-11-13   2060.86 0.59 2.39
2015-11-20   2071.52 0.6 2.33
2015-11-27   2088.68 0.64 2.3
2015-11-30 5      
2015-12-04   2080.77 0.69 2.29
2015-12-11   2050.58 0.75 2.27
2015-12-18   2037.17 0.77 2.31
2015-12-25   2046.35 0.75 2.3
2015-12-31 5      

Return to text


Figure 9: Distribution of DTI Ratios for FHA Home Purchase Loans

Note: Sample densities in one-percentage point bins.

Source: HUD.

Density

DTI Ratio FICO > 620 FICO < 620
0 0.0007611 0.0007509
1 0.0000005 0.0000000
2 0.0000005 0.0000000
3 0.0000045 0.0000000
4 0.0000075 0.0000139
5 0.0000199 0.0000000
6 0.0000199 0.0000139
7 0.0000398 0.0000417
8 0.0000611 0.0000556
9 0.0001019 0.0000973
10 0.0001670 0.0001530
11 0.0002605 0.0003198
12 0.0003684 0.0002503
13 0.0005468 0.0005701
14 0.0007879 0.0008344
15 0.0011394 0.0011125
16 0.0015242 0.0015992
17 0.0020148 0.0022945
18 0.0026452 0.0026282
19 0.0033178 0.0037685
20 0.0042668 0.0051174
21 0.0053699 0.0058823
22 0.0066172 0.0078013
23 0.0078217 0.0099707
24 0.0092857 0.0113474
25 0.0107040 0.0146987
26 0.0124185 0.0158112
27 0.0142355 0.0181196
28 0.0159153 0.0198023
29 0.0180365 0.0241966
30 0.0198907 0.0269500
31 0.0216684 0.0304265
32 0.0236718 0.0345149
33 0.0256041 0.0376577
34 0.0271596 0.0400078
35 0.0291292 0.0439432
36 0.0306603 0.0478230
37 0.0329262 0.0511744
38 0.0346293 0.0540946
39 0.0367675 0.0604358
40 0.0392834 0.0673610
41 0.0409855 0.0736049
42 0.0433946 0.0848549
43 0.0460482 0.1239449
44 0.0452747 0.0127658
45 0.0487858 0.0130856
46 0.0378487 0.0108746
47 0.0384939 0.0114030
48 0.0374430 0.0068279
49 0.0366248 0.0062021
50 0.0371219 0.0070921
51 0.0245015 0.0019886
52 0.0232090 0.0013489
53 0.0223679 0.0011403
54 0.0219871 0.0008483
55 0.0223207 0.0007926
56 0.0164343 0.0005423
57 0.0166977 0.0005701
58 0.0000870 0.0000695
59 0.0000507 0.0000278
60 0.0000507 0.0000139

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Figure 10: Year-over-Year Log Growth in the Number of Home Purchase Applications, by Week of Loan Application

Source: Data collected under HMDA

date Log Application Growth
1-Jan-13 0.06072668
8-Jan-13 0.089303613
15-Jan-13 0.03248759
22-Jan-13 0.14039946
29-Jan-13 0.067344412
5-Feb-13 0.091342434
12-Feb-13 0.016939687
19-Feb-13 0.22218424
26-Feb-13 0.11549001
5-Mar-13 0.080340333
12-Mar-13 0.1253328
19-Mar-13 0.12096283
26-Mar-13 0.044477206
2-Apr-13 0.075448535
9-Apr-13 0.17203544
16-Apr-13 0.14768298
23-Apr-13 0.14528929
30-Apr-13 0.1335883
7-May-13 0.12118735
14-May-13 0.14458039
21-May-13 -0.083387978
28-May-13 0.38600087
4-Jun-13 0.13505596
11-Jun-13 0.15625401
18-Jun-13 0.16144556
25-Jun-13 0.15560046
2-Jul-13 0.079063579
9-Jul-13 0.13371868
16-Jul-13 0.12279253
23-Jul-13 0.11681284
30-Jul-13 0.11671709
6-Aug-13 0.12480832
13-Aug-13 0.10299551
20-Aug-13 0.090009488
27-Aug-13 -0.12143013
3-Sep-13 0.28931162
10-Sep-13 0.082658991
17-Sep-13 0.080187015
24-Sep-13 0.056451723
1-Oct-13 0.045690972
8-Oct-13 -0.0066858539
15-Oct-13 0.084768206
22-Oct-13 0.06176376
29-Oct-13 0.1104565
5-Nov-13 -0.061461579
12-Nov-13 0.15218727
19-Nov-13 0.44574934
26-Nov-13 -0.3915441
3-Dec-13 -0.021195641
10-Dec-13 -0.011229382
17-Dec-13 -0.005933648
24-Dec-13 0.06858857
1-Jan-14 -0.053786181
8-Jan-14 0.0010141621
15-Jan-14 0.0083644791
22-Jan-14 -0.025919378
29-Jan-14 -0.037436679
5-Feb-14 -0.015809644
12-Feb-14 -0.043485478
19-Feb-14 -0.012656469
26-Feb-14 0.0017404801
5-Mar-14 0.0031247521
12-Mar-14 0.026368255
19-Mar-14 -0.010079501
26-Mar-14 0.016498785
2-Apr-14 0.069374755
9-Apr-14 0.043084115
16-Apr-14 -0.034657642
23-Apr-14 0.0056242095
30-Apr-14 0.02760605
7-May-14 0.035166856
14-May-14 0.054551274
21-May-14 0.06000255
28-May-14 0.01603844
4-Jun-14 0.026150156
11-Jun-14 0.011092758
18-Jun-14 0.01425558
25-Jun-14 0.021763591
2-Jul-14 0.087719165
9-Jul-14 0.0064827786
16-Jul-14 0.020810723
23-Jul-14 0.047983114
30-Jul-14 0.04869806
6-Aug-14 0.037413731
13-Aug-14 0.062134951
20-Aug-14 0.047124624
27-Aug-14 0.080124304
3-Sep-14 0.048215888
10-Sep-14 0.049368426
17-Sep-14 0.02938767
24-Sep-14 0.037851166
1-Oct-14 0.085529931
8-Oct-14 0.13207929
15-Oct-14 0.070407242
22-Oct-14 0.072664946
29-Oct-14 0.064009018
5-Nov-14 0.11285749
12-Nov-14 0.061678685
19-Nov-14 0.042585962
26-Nov-14 0.090987556
3-Dec-14 0.063111827
10-Dec-14 0.073579252
17-Dec-14 0.072897613
24-Dec-14 0.014334818
1-Jan-15 0.10066573
8-Jan-15 0.081281155
15-Jan-15 0.16060343
22-Jan-15 0.11964055
29-Jan-15 0.16692251
5-Feb-15 0.13958073
12-Feb-15 0.17706019
19-Feb-15 0.088879287
26-Feb-15 0.083225228
5-Mar-15 0.082780384
12-Mar-15 0.10231721
19-Mar-15 0.13807333
26-Mar-15 0.14735804
2-Apr-15 0.042981859
9-Apr-15 0.10294914
16-Apr-15 0.19525258
23-Apr-15 0.15048946
30-Apr-15 0.09400484
7-May-15 0.099521555
14-May-15 0.080480553
21-May-15 0.12321287
28-May-15 0.077196643
4-Jun-15 0.079868257
11-Jun-15 0.096582361
18-Jun-15 0.090015046
25-Jun-15 0.066831931
2-Jul-15 0.13023996
9-Jul-15 0.05324826
16-Jul-15 0.065540545
23-Jul-15 0.06964013
30-Jul-15 0.057401542
6-Aug-15 0.059488133
13-Aug-15 0.049127609
20-Aug-15 0.081320874
27-Aug-15 0.27244312
3-Sep-15 -0.21359396
10-Sep-15 0.066381298
17-Sep-15 0.02612368
24-Sep-15 0.069661498
1-Oct-15 -0.025360145

Return to text


Figure 11: Correlation between Effect of FHA MIP Reduction on Treatment Group Borrowing and 2014 FHA Share, by State

Note: Figure plots state-specific point estimates of the coefficient β1 from equation 1.

Source: Optimal Blue and data collected under HMDA.

State Estimated Discontinuity FHA Share
HI -0.0317 0.0503
DE -0.0564 0.1256
MT 0.0179 0.1430
SD -0.0081 0.1695
VA -0.0043 0.1789
OR 0.0177 0.1797
WA -0.0009 0.1905
NV 0.0236 0.1956
NY 0.0423 0.1964
MA 0.0095 0.1979
WI 0.0065 0.1990
IA -0.0001 0.1994
CO 0.0036 0.2033
WY -0.0141 0.2085
NE 0.0263 0.2100
ME 0.0045 0.2128
VT 0.0201 0.2212
MN 0.0363 0.2344
AK 0.0000 0.2348
SC -0.0047 0.2366
KY 0.1021 0.2376
UT 0.0254 0.2476
ID 0.0112 0.2516
IN 0.0454 0.2518
TN 0.0649 0.2537
LA 0.0192 0.2596
WV 0.0129 0.2611
AZ 0.0260 0.2662
NC -0.0453 0.2665
NM 0.0216 0.2702
MI 0.0483 0.2712
KS 0.0381 0.2791
DC 0.0272 0.2799
FL 0.0134 0.2802
MS 0.0016 0.2862
AL -0.0512 0.2871
CA 0.0115 0.2895
TX 0.0264 0.2916
NH 0.0146 0.2983
MO 0.0169 0.2987
OK 0.0460 0.3033
CT -0.0139 0.3043
IL 0.0036 0.3046
NJ 0.0717 0.3069
GA 0.0166 0.3092
PA 0.0408 0.3095
AR 0.0250 0.3253
OH 0.0320 0.3267
MD 0.0189 0.3403
ND -0.0001 0.3580
RI 0.0722 0.4133

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