Real Goods Exports. In Figure 1, there is a line plotting the path of real goods exports during the Great Recession, and a second line plotting the path of real goods exports during the average recession from 1949 to 2001. The y-axis measures log percentage change from -15 percent to 25 percent, while the x-axis measures quarters after business cycle peak and ranges from 0 to 24. The Great Recession line starts by increasing to 5 percent 2 quarters after business cycle peak, before decreasing to a trough of -15 percent 6 quarters after business cycle peak. It then gradually increases to 19 percent 24 quarters after the business cycle peak. The average recession line begins to decrease to a trough of 3 percent 4 quarters after the business cycle peak, and then gradually increases to 25 percent 24 quarters after business cycle peak.
The Contribution to Exports by Exporting Experience. In Figure 2, there is a bar chart depicting the share of US exports by firm exporting history. The y-axis measures the percent of total US exports in 2002 from 0 to 100 percent, while the x-axis contains four bins for firms by exporting experience: less than 5 years, 5 to 9 years, 10 to 14 years, and 15 years or more. The chart shows that firms with 15 or more years of exporting experience accounted for 46 percent of total US exports in 2002, followed by firms with less than 5 years of experience which accounted for 29 percent. Firms with 5 to 9 years of exporting experience accounted for 13 percent of US exports in 2002, and firms with 10 to 14 years of experience accounted for 12 percent
Foreign Market Entry and Exit Rates 1994 to 2014. Panel A. Entry and Exit Rates. In Panel A, there is a line plotting the foreign market exit rate and a second line plotting the foreign market entry rate (both of which are measured on the y-axis with range 0 to 50 percent) from 1994 to 2014, which is shown on the x-axis. The exit rate begins around 35 percent and gradually falls to 30, while the entry rate begins at 37 percent and gradually falls to just below 30 percent. The figure also shows while exit and entry rates both ticked up slightly during the 2001 recession, exit rates increased and entry rates decreased during the Great Recession. Panel B displays a line plotting the percentage change in the difference between entry and exit rates (which is measured on the y-axis with a range of -7.5 and 7.5 percent) during the same time period as panel A. The difference in entry and exit begins just above 1 percent in 1994 and jumps to a peak of 3.5 percent in 1997. The difference in entry and exit then bounces from 2.5 and -1 percent until the time of the Great Recession, where it hits trough of -5.5 percent. It then recovers to 2 percent by 2010, and finishes at 0.75 percent in 2014.
Six Year Contribution Differences 2008-2014 Minus the 1993-2006 Average. In Figure 4, there is a bar chart depicting the breakdown of the total log growth of real exports by the extensive entry margin, the intensive entry margin, the extensive exit margin, and the intensive exit margin. The y-axis measures annualized log percentage points, and the x-axis shows the various margin and cumulative intensive categories. The figure shows that the total difference in the in the 2008-2014 and average 1993-2006 growths is -2.32. The entry intensive margin contributes 3.94 percentage points to the total, followed by 1.59 percentage points. In addition, the exit intensive margin and the entry extensive margin reduces the total growth by -2.61 and -4.53 percentage points, respectively. The chart also displays a bar for the cumulative intensive margin, which reduces the total by -2.61. Accordingly, the figure contains text that shows that the entry margin is -0.59 percentage points, the exit margin is 0.88 percentage points, and the net extensive margin is 0.29 percentage points.
Counterfactual Real Export Growth. In Figure 5, the x-axis measures years, ranging from 2008 to 2014, while the y-axis measures log percentage change. There are five lines, one of which shows the observed data, and four counterfactuals: intensive margin (if the intensive margin contribution remained at 1993 to 2006 levels), entry margin (if the entry extensive and entry intensive margin remained at their historical averages), exit margin (if the exit extensive and exit intensive margin remained at their historical averages), and both entry and exit rates (if all intensive and extensive entry and exit rates remained at their historical averages). The entry and exit margin largely follow the data, starting at 0 percent, falling to roughly -17 percent, and then gradually rising to between 10 and 20 log percent change by 2014. The intensive margin line begins at 0 percent and gradually rises to 30 percent by 2014. Finally, the entry and exit rate counterfactual line begins at 0 percent, dips slightly in 2009, and then gradually rises to 32 percent by 2014.
Entry and Exit Counterfactuals: Number vs. Size. In Panel A, there are three lines for counterfactuals to the log percentage change in foreign market entry (which is measured on the y-axis with range -25 to 45 percent), and one line depicts the data. All counterfactuals plot the evolution of foreign market entry growth had the variable stayed at its historical average. Both the data and the entry margin start at 0, reach a trough at -15 percent in 2009, and slowly rise to between 15 and 20 percent by 2014. The entry rate counterfactual line begins at 0, dips to a trough of 5 percent in 2009, and rises to 41 percent by 2014. The entry size counterfactual line begins at 0, hits a trough of -25 percent in 2009, and then reaches -10 percent by 2012, where it finishes in 2014. In Panel B, there are three lines for counterfactuals to the log percentage change in foreign market exit (which is measured on the y-axis with range -25 to 45 percent), and one line depicts the data. All counterfactuals plot the evolution of foreign market exit had the variable stayed at its historical average. All four lines start at 0 percent, and drop to a trough of 17 percent in 2009. After 2009, the exit size counterfactual line increases to 18 percent by 2014, the exit margin increases to 10 percent by 2014, the exit rate counterfactual increases to 5 percent by 2014, and the data line increases to 15 percent by 2014.
Aggregate Exports. Chart plots the log percent change of nominal goods exports since peak of the business cycle for both the Great Recession and the average recession from 1949 to 2001. The y-axis measures log percentage change from -25 percent to 40 percent, while the x-axis measures quarters after business cycle peak ranging from 0 to 24. The Great Recession line increases to 10 percent 3 quarters after business peak, and then drops to a trough of 20 percent 5 quarters after business cycle peak. It then gradually increases to 26 percent by 24 quarters after business cycle peak. The average recession line remains flat until 7 quarters after business cycle peak, and then steadily increases to 37 percent 24 quarters after business cycle peak.
Good Exports Prices. Chart plots the log percent change of good exports prices since peak of the business cycle for both the Great Recession and the average recession from 1949 to 2001. The y-axis measures log percentage change from -25 percent to 40 percent, while the x-axis measures quarters after business cycle peak ranging from 0 to 24. The Great Recession line increases to 5 percent 3 quarters after business peak, and then drops to a trough of -5 percent 5 quarters after business cycle peak. It then gradually increases to around 7 percent 13 quarters after business cycle peak, where it remains until 24 quarters after business cycle. The average recession gradually increases to 14 percent 24 quarters after business cycle peak.