Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2017-111

Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets

Accessible version of figures

Figure 1: Conditional Mean Squared Errors

Time one-step-ahead Kalman filter Kalman smoother
1960-12-01 1.627 0.524 0.089
1961-03-01 0.739 0.344 0.078
1961-06-01 0.548 0.262 0.072
1961-09-01 0.467 0.214 0.068
1961-12-01 0.420 0.183 0.065
1962-03-01 0.390 0.161 0.062
1962-06-01 0.368 0.144 0.060
1962-09-01 0.352 0.132 0.058
1962-12-01 0.340 0.122 0.056
1963-03-01 0.331 0.114 0.055
1963-06-01 0.323 0.108 0.053
1963-09-01 0.317 0.102 0.052
1963-12-01 0.312 0.098 0.051
1964-03-01 0.308 0.094 0.050
1964-06-01 0.304 0.091 0.049
1964-09-01 0.301 0.088 0.048
1964-12-01 0.298 0.086 0.047
1965-03-01 0.296 0.084 0.047
1965-06-01 0.294 0.082 0.046
1965-09-01 0.292 0.080 0.046
1965-12-01 0.291 0.079 0.045
1966-03-01 0.289 0.077 0.045
1966-06-01 0.288 0.076 0.044
1966-09-01 0.287 0.075 0.044
1966-12-01 0.286 0.074 0.043
1967-03-01 0.285 0.073 0.043
1967-06-01 0.284 0.073 0.043
1967-09-01 0.283 0.072 0.042
1967-12-01 0.282 0.071 0.042
1968-03-01 0.282 0.071 0.042
1968-06-01 0.281 0.070 0.041
1968-09-01 0.281 0.070 0.041
1968-12-01 0.280 0.069 0.041
1969-03-01 0.280 0.069 0.041
1969-06-01 0.279 0.068 0.041
1969-09-01 0.279 0.068 0.040
1969-12-01 0.279 0.068 0.040
1970-03-01 0.278 0.067 0.040
1970-06-01 0.278 0.067 0.040
1970-09-01 0.278 0.067 0.040
1970-12-01 0.278 0.067 0.040
1971-03-01 0.277 0.066 0.040
1971-06-01 0.277 0.066 0.040
1971-09-01 0.277 0.066 0.039
1971-12-01 0.277 0.066 0.039
1972-03-01 0.277 0.066 0.039
1972-06-01 0.276 0.065 0.039
1972-09-01 0.276 0.065 0.039
1972-12-01 0.276 0.065 0.039
1973-03-01 0.276 0.065 0.039
1973-06-01 0.276 0.065 0.039
1973-09-01 0.276 0.065 0.039
1973-12-01 0.276 0.065 0.039
1974-03-01 0.276 0.065 0.039
1974-06-01 0.276 0.065 0.039
1974-09-01 0.275 0.065 0.039
1974-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
1975-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
1975-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
1975-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
1975-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
1976-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
1976-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
1976-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1976-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1977-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1977-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1977-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1977-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1978-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1978-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1978-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1978-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1979-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1979-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1979-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1979-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1980-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1980-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1980-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1980-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1981-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1981-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1981-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1981-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1982-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1982-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1982-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1982-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1983-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1983-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1983-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1983-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1984-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1984-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1984-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1984-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1985-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1985-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1985-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1985-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1986-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1986-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1986-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1986-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1987-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1987-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1987-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1987-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1988-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1988-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1988-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1988-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1989-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1989-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1989-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1989-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1990-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1990-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1990-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1990-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1991-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1991-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1991-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1991-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1992-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1992-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1992-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1992-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1993-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1993-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1993-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1993-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1994-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1994-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1994-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1994-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1995-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1995-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1995-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1995-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1996-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1996-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1996-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1996-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1997-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1997-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1997-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1997-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1998-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1998-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1998-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1998-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1999-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1999-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1999-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
1999-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2000-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2000-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2000-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2000-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2001-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2001-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2001-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2001-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2002-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2002-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2002-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2002-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2003-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2003-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2003-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2003-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2004-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2004-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2004-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2004-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2005-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2005-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2005-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2005-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2006-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2006-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2006-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2006-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2007-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2007-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2007-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2007-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2008-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2008-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2008-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2008-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.038
2009-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2009-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2009-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2009-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2010-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2010-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2010-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2010-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2011-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2011-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2011-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2011-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2012-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2012-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2012-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2012-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2013-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.039
2013-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.040
2013-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.040
2013-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.040
2014-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.040
2014-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.040
2014-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.041
2014-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.041
2015-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.042
2015-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.042
2015-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.043
2015-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.044
2016-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.045
2016-06-01 0.275 0.064 0.046
2016-09-01 0.275 0.064 0.049
2016-12-01 0.275 0.064 0.053
2017-03-01 0.275 0.064 0.064

Return to text


Figure 2: Spectral Densities of Common Trends and Common Cycles

Notes: (1) Wt is Gt - Ct (2) The frequency for the spectral densities are expressed in number of years

Frequency (number of years) ΔT1t ΔC1t ΔC2t ΔW1t ΔW2t ΔW3t
∞ 1.02 0.05 0.22 0.02 0.05 0.11
32.0 1.00 0.06 0.23 0.02 0.04 0.11
16.0 0.97 0.06 0.24 0.02 0.04 0.11
10.7 0.91 0.08 0.27 0.02 0.04 0.11
8.0 0.83 0.09 0.29 0.02 0.04 0.12
6.4 0.74 0.10 0.31 0.03 0.03 0.12
5.3 0.65 0.12 0.32 0.03 0.03 0.12
4.6 0.55 0.13 0.32 0.03 0.03 0.12
4.0 0.46 0.13 0.31 0.03 0.02 0.11
3.6 0.38 0.14 0.29 0.03 0.02 0.10
3.2 0.31 0.14 0.27 0.02 0.01 0.09
2.9 0.24 0.14 0.24 0.02 0.01 0.08
2.7 0.20 0.14 0.21 0.02 0.01 0.07
2.5 0.16 0.14 0.19 0.02 0.01 0.06
2.3 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.02 0.01 0.05
2.1 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.01 0.05
2.0 0.09 0.16 0.13 0.02 0.00 0.04
1.9 0.08 0.18 0.12 0.02 0.00 0.04
1.8 0.07 0.20 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.03
1.7 0.06 0.22 0.10 0.02 0.00 0.03
1.6 0.06 0.23 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.03
1.5 0.05 0.25 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.03
1.5 0.05 0.26 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.02
1.4 0.04 0.27 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.02
1.3 0.04 0.26 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.02
1.3 0.04 0.25 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.02
1.2 0.03 0.24 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.02
1.2 0.03 0.23 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.02
1.1 0.03 0.21 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01
1.1 0.02 0.21 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01
1.1 0.02 0.21 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01
1.0 0.02 0.22 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01
1.0 0.02 0.23 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01
1.0 0.02 0.25 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.9 0.02 0.27 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.9 0.02 0.29 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.9 0.02 0.30 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.9 0.02 0.31 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.8 0.02 0.31 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.8 0.02 0.31 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.8 0.02 0.31 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.8 0.02 0.31 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.8 0.02 0.31 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.7 0.02 0.30 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.7 0.02 0.30 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01
0.7 0.01 0.29 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.7 0.01 0.28 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.7 0.01 0.27 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.7 0.01 0.25 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.7 0.01 0.23 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.6 0.01 0.21 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.6 0.01 0.19 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.6 0.01 0.17 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.6 0.01 0.16 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.6 0.01 0.15 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.6 0.01 0.14 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.6 0.01 0.14 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.6 0.01 0.14 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.6 0.01 0.14 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.5 0.01 0.13 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.5 0.01 0.13 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00
0.5 0.01 0.12 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.5 0.01 0.12 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.5 0.01 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.5 0.01 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00

Return to text


Figure 3: Gross Domestic Output

Left plot: Quarterly annualised percentage change

Time BEA GDPplus BL
1963-06-01 5.5 5.5 5.4
1963-09-01 6.6 5.0 4.3
1963-12-01 3.2 4.6 4.0
1964-03-01 7.6 5.8 5.5
1964-06-01 5.3 5.6 5.4
1964-09-01 5.5 5.1 5.7
1964-12-01 2.6 5.1 4.3
1965-03-01 9.3 7.3 6.7
1965-06-01 5.3 5.9 5.5
1965-09-01 6.8 6.3 6.0
1965-12-01 9.0 7.9 6.6
1966-03-01 9.2 6.9 6.3
1966-06-01 2.1 3.5 3.5
1966-09-01 2.8 3.0 3.6
1966-12-01 3.5 3.2 2.7
1967-03-01 3.0 2.4 2.9
1967-06-01 1.3 2.7 2.6
1967-09-01 3.8 3.9 4.6
1967-12-01 3.6 4.6 4.6
1968-03-01 7.0 5.6 5.3
1968-06-01 6.4 5.4 5.2
1968-09-01 4.0 4.6 4.6
1968-12-01 2.1 3.3 5.5
1969-03-01 5.0 3.3 4.8
1969-06-01 2.0 2.7 3.8
1969-09-01 2.7 2.0 2.9
1969-12-01 -1.2 -0.2 1.3
1970-03-01 -1.8 -1.5 -0.1
1970-06-01 0.3 0.3 0.3
1970-09-01 3.4 1.6 1.7
1970-12-01 -4.0 0.0 -0.4
1971-03-01 9.2 5.1 6.5
1971-06-01 2.4 3.3 4.3
1971-09-01 3.3 3.5 3.8
1971-12-01 3.1 5.1 6.1
1972-03-01 6.4 5.8 6.3
1972-06-01 7.1 5.2 5.8
1972-09-01 5.1 6.6 4.5
1972-12-01 8.4 8.7 8.0
1973-03-01 8.4 6.3 6.2
1973-06-01 3.3 2.5 1.8
1973-09-01 -0.4 1.9 1.5
1973-12-01 3.9 2.2 2.6
1974-03-01 -3.2 -1.5 -1.5
1974-06-01 -0.3 -1.8 -0.3
1974-09-01 -3.0 -2.2 -2.9
1974-12-01 -3.2 -3.8 -6.5
1975-03-01 -4.7 -2.4 -4.7
1975-06-01 3.2 3.1 4.2
1975-09-01 7.3 6.4 6.8
1975-12-01 4.7 5.2 5.9
1976-03-01 8.6 6.3 7.6
1976-06-01 2.8 3.2 3.3
1976-09-01 2.5 2.9 1.9
1976-12-01 2.1 2.4 4.2
1977-03-01 4.1 4.4 5.7
1977-06-01 8.9 8.0 6.4
1977-09-01 7.3 6.3 4.5
1977-12-01 1.2 3.4 4.7
1978-03-01 1.9 4.7 3.8
1978-06-01 13.5 8.3 8.7
1978-09-01 3.2 4.0 4.0
1978-12-01 4.4 3.2 4.0
1979-03-01 2.3 2.7 2.5
1979-06-01 -0.8 -0.3 0.8
1979-09-01 1.6 0.4 1.8
1979-12-01 1.4 1.0 0.6
1980-03-01 0.8 -0.9 -1.7
1980-06-01 -7.9 -3.8 -6.9
1980-09-01 1.2 2.8 3.6
1980-12-01 8.7 7.3 5.7
1981-03-01 5.6 3.0 1.7
1981-06-01 -1.4 1.4 2.8
1981-09-01 5.1 2.5 -0.8
1981-12-01 -4.6 -2.9 -2.0
1982-03-01 -5.0 -2.0 -0.7
1982-06-01 1.9 0.4 0.2
1982-09-01 -1.5 -0.6 -0.9
1982-12-01 -0.6 0.2 2.3
1983-03-01 4.8 4.3 6.4
1983-06-01 7.9 6.2 6.9
1983-09-01 6.6 6.2 7.6
1983-12-01 8.6 8.3 7.3
1984-03-01 9.4 9.3 5.0
1984-06-01 6.7 6.3 5.1
1984-09-01 4.1 4.6 3.4
1984-12-01 3.7 4.2 4.4
1985-03-01 3.7 3.6 3.3
1985-06-01 3.3 3.5 3.8
1985-09-01 5.5 4.1 4.0
1985-12-01 2.6 2.9 3.8
1986-03-01 3.9 3.3 3.1
1986-06-01 1.4 2.0 4.3
1986-09-01 3.3 2.6 4.7
1986-12-01 2.6 3.2 4.0
1987-03-01 3.4 4.1 3.7
1987-06-01 5.4 5.5 4.4
1987-09-01 4.8 5.7 4.1
1987-12-01 5.9 4.9 4.4
1988-03-01 3.5 4.8 3.5
1988-06-01 4.9 4.3 4.2
1988-09-01 2.9 4.0 3.3
1988-12-01 5.4 4.6 4.9
1989-03-01 3.3 2.7 3.3
1989-06-01 1.2 0.5 1.8
1989-09-01 2.3 1.3 2.5
1989-12-01 0.6 1.3 2.6
1990-03-01 4.3 3.0 3.0
1990-06-01 1.9 1.8 1.3
1990-09-01 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4
1990-12-01 -2.7 -1.2 -2.1
1991-03-01 -1.2 0.0 -1.4
1991-06-01 2.1 1.0 2.6
1991-09-01 1.5 1.4 2.6
1991-12-01 1.6 2.4 1.0
1992-03-01 5.8 5.3 3.2
1992-06-01 3.8 3.5 3.2
1992-09-01 2.6 2.1 2.8
1992-12-01 3.9 2.7 3.7
1993-03-01 -0.4 0.4 3.8
1993-06-01 3.6 3.4 2.7
1993-09-01 1.3 2.4 4.2
1993-12-01 6.5 5.7 4.9
1994-03-01 3.0 3.5 4.6
1994-06-01 5.8 5.0 4.9
1994-09-01 3.1 4.0 4.5
1994-12-01 4.5 3.8 4.6
1995-03-01 1.6 2.4 2.7
1995-06-01 1.8 2.7 2.0
1995-09-01 4.1 4.0 4.0
1995-12-01 2.7 3.1 3.1
1996-03-01 3.5 4.5 3.5
1996-06-01 6.4 5.1 5.7
1996-09-01 3.7 4.2 3.8
1996-12-01 4.6 4.6 4.0
1997-03-01 3.8 4.7 4.5
1997-06-01 5.3 4.8 4.7
1997-09-01 5.8 5.7 5.4
1997-12-01 4.1 5.0 4.8
1998-03-01 4.1 4.5 4.3
1998-06-01 4.8 5.4 4.5
1998-09-01 5.4 5.4 4.1
1998-12-01 5.1 4.0 5.1
1999-03-01 4.1 4.3 4.2
1999-06-01 2.9 3.3 4.4
1999-09-01 4.3 4.2 4.0
1999-12-01 6.7 5.5 4.8
2000-03-01 4.6 6.7 3.2
2000-06-01 4.8 2.9 3.9
2000-09-01 1.7 2.5 2.0
2000-12-01 0.8 0.4 1.9
2001-03-01 1.7 2.9 -0.0
2001-06-01 0.7 -0.1 0.4
2001-09-01 -1.3 -0.7 0.5
2001-12-01 -0.5 -0.4 -0.0
2002-03-01 4.4 3.4 3.8
2002-06-01 2.3 2.4 2.6
2002-09-01 1.2 1.1 1.9
2002-12-01 1.3 2.0 1.7
2003-03-01 1.4 1.7 1.1
2003-06-01 3.7 3.6 2.1
2003-09-01 5.2 3.8 3.7
2003-12-01 4.3 3.6 4.1
2004-03-01 2.7 3.3 3.0
2004-06-01 3.5 3.9 3.0
2004-09-01 4.1 4.0 2.4
2004-12-01 2.7 2.8 3.2
2005-03-01 4.1 3.4 3.1
2005-06-01 2.5 3.1 3.1
2005-09-01 3.4 3.6 3.1
2005-12-01 3.9 5.0 3.1
2006-03-01 6.1 5.5 4.1
2006-06-01 0.9 1.7 1.9
2006-09-01 1.0 1.7 2.3
2006-12-01 2.3 1.2 3.4
2007-03-01 -0.4 0.0 1.7
2007-06-01 1.8 0.4 2.9
2007-09-01 0.2 -1.1 1.4
2007-12-01 0.6 -0.4 0.8
2008-03-01 -1.0 0.5 -0.2
2008-06-01 0.9 -0.7 -1.3
2008-09-01 -1.8 -2.7 -3.0
2008-12-01 -8.2 -5.9 -6.3
2009-03-01 -5.9 -4.5 -6.1
2009-06-01 -0.3 -0.3 -1.4
2009-09-01 1.6 2.0 2.4
2009-12-01 4.7 4.0 0.7
2010-03-01 1.1 1.8 2.7
2010-06-01 3.3 2.8 3.5
2010-09-01 3.9 3.9 1.3
2010-12-01 2.1 1.8 2.3
2011-03-01 -0.5 1.3 1.4
2011-06-01 2.4 1.9 1.3
2011-09-01 1.7 2.8 2.0
2011-12-01 3.9 3.4 3.2
2012-03-01 5.0 5.2 3.1
2012-06-01 1.2 1.5 2.0
2012-09-01 0.2 0.6 1.7
2012-12-01 1.8 2.5 2.2
2013-03-01 1.3 0.7 2.9
2013-06-01 1.4 1.8 2.1
2013-09-01 1.9 1.5 2.9
2013-12-01 3.2 2.0 3.3
2014-03-01 0.4 2.7 1.9
2014-06-01 4.6 4.5 3.8
2014-09-01 4.6 4.0 3.8
2014-12-01 3.1 3.4 4.0
2015-03-01 1.8 1.9 3.1
2015-06-01 1.6 1.2 2.8
2015-09-01 2.2 1.9 3.2
2015-12-01 1.2 1.5 2.5
2016-03-01 0.8 1.1 3.2
2016-06-01 1.1 1.5 2.6
2016-09-01 4.2 3.2 2.7
2016-12-01 0.3 0.1 2.4
2017-03-01 1.0 1.0 2.6


Right plot: 4-quarter percentage change

Time BEA GDPplus BL
1964-03-01 5.7 5.2 4.8
1964-06-01 5.6 5.2 4.8
1964-09-01 5.4 5.3 5.1
1964-12-01 5.2 5.4 5.2
1965-03-01 5.7 5.8 5.5
1965-06-01 5.7 5.9 5.5
1965-09-01 6.0 6.1 5.6
1965-12-01 7.6 6.8 6.2
1966-03-01 7.6 6.8 6.1
1966-06-01 6.8 6.2 5.6
1966-09-01 5.8 5.4 5.0
1966-12-01 4.4 4.2 4.0
1967-03-01 2.8 3.0 3.2
1967-06-01 2.6 2.8 2.9
1967-09-01 2.9 3.0 3.2
1967-12-01 2.9 3.4 3.7
1968-03-01 3.9 4.2 4.3
1968-06-01 5.2 4.9 4.9
1968-09-01 5.3 5.0 4.9
1968-12-01 4.9 4.7 5.2
1969-03-01 4.4 4.1 5.0
1969-06-01 3.3 3.5 4.7
1969-09-01 3.0 2.8 4.3
1969-12-01 2.1 1.9 3.2
1970-03-01 0.4 0.7 2.0
1970-06-01 0.0 0.2 1.1
1970-09-01 0.2 0.1 0.8
1970-12-01 -0.5 0.1 0.4
1971-03-01 2.3 1.8 2.0
1971-06-01 2.8 2.5 3.0
1971-09-01 2.8 3.0 3.6
1971-12-01 4.5 4.2 5.2
1972-03-01 3.8 4.4 5.1
1972-06-01 5.0 4.9 5.5
1972-09-01 5.4 5.7 5.7
1972-12-01 6.7 6.6 6.2
1973-03-01 7.2 6.7 6.1
1973-06-01 6.3 6.0 5.1
1973-09-01 4.9 4.9 4.4
1973-12-01 3.8 3.2 3.0
1974-03-01 0.9 1.3 1.1
1974-06-01 0.0 0.2 0.6
1974-09-01 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5
1974-12-01 -2.4 -2.3 -2.8
1975-03-01 -2.8 -2.5 -3.6
1975-06-01 -1.9 -1.3 -2.5
1975-09-01 0.6 0.8 -0.1
1975-12-01 2.6 3.1 3.0
1976-03-01 6.0 5.2 6.1
1976-06-01 5.8 5.3 5.9
1976-09-01 4.6 4.4 4.7
1976-12-01 4.0 3.7 4.2
1977-03-01 2.9 3.2 3.8
1977-06-01 4.4 4.5 4.6
1977-09-01 5.6 5.3 5.2
1977-12-01 5.4 5.5 5.3
1978-03-01 4.8 5.6 4.8
1978-06-01 6.0 5.7 5.4
1978-09-01 5.0 5.1 5.3
1978-12-01 5.8 5.0 5.1
1979-03-01 5.9 4.5 4.8
1979-06-01 2.3 2.4 2.8
1979-09-01 1.9 1.5 2.3
1979-12-01 1.1 1.0 1.4
1980-03-01 0.7 0.1 0.4
1980-06-01 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5
1980-09-01 -1.1 -0.2 -1.1
1980-12-01 0.7 1.4 0.2
1981-03-01 1.9 2.3 1.0
1981-06-01 3.5 3.7 3.4
1981-09-01 4.5 3.6 2.3
1981-12-01 1.2 1.0 0.4
1982-03-01 -1.5 -0.2 -0.2
1982-06-01 -0.7 -0.5 -0.8
1982-09-01 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9
1982-12-01 -1.3 -0.5 0.2
1983-03-01 1.1 1.1 2.0
1983-06-01 2.6 2.5 3.7
1983-09-01 4.7 4.2 5.8
1983-12-01 7.0 6.3 7.0
1984-03-01 8.1 7.5 6.7
1984-06-01 7.8 7.5 6.3
1984-09-01 7.2 7.1 5.2
1984-12-01 6.0 6.1 4.5
1985-03-01 4.6 4.7 4.0
1985-06-01 3.7 4.0 3.7
1985-09-01 4.1 3.9 3.8
1985-12-01 3.8 3.5 3.7
1986-03-01 3.8 3.4 3.7
1986-06-01 3.4 3.1 3.8
1986-09-01 2.8 2.7 4.0
1986-12-01 2.8 2.8 4.0
1987-03-01 2.7 3.0 4.1
1987-06-01 3.7 3.9 4.2
1987-09-01 4.0 4.6 4.0
1987-12-01 4.9 5.1 4.2
1988-03-01 4.9 5.2 4.1
1988-06-01 4.8 4.9 4.1
1988-09-01 4.3 4.5 3.9
1988-12-01 4.2 4.4 4.0
1989-03-01 4.1 3.9 3.9
1989-06-01 3.2 2.9 3.3
1989-09-01 3.0 2.3 3.1
1989-12-01 1.8 1.4 2.5
1990-03-01 2.1 1.5 2.5
1990-06-01 2.2 1.8 2.3
1990-09-01 1.6 1.4 1.6
1990-12-01 0.8 0.8 0.4
1991-03-01 -0.5 0.1 -0.6
1991-06-01 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3
1991-09-01 -0.1 0.3 0.4
1991-12-01 1.0 1.2 1.2
1992-03-01 2.7 2.5 2.4
1992-06-01 3.2 3.1 2.5
1992-09-01 3.5 3.3 2.6
1992-12-01 4.0 3.4 3.2
1993-03-01 2.5 2.2 3.4
1993-06-01 2.4 2.2 3.2
1993-09-01 2.1 2.2 3.6
1993-12-01 2.8 3.0 3.9
1994-03-01 3.6 3.8 4.1
1994-06-01 4.2 4.2 4.7
1994-09-01 4.6 4.6 4.7
1994-12-01 4.1 4.1 4.6
1995-03-01 3.8 3.8 4.2
1995-06-01 2.8 3.2 3.4
1995-09-01 3.0 3.2 3.3
1995-12-01 2.6 3.1 2.9
1996-03-01 3.0 3.6 3.1
1996-06-01 4.2 4.2 4.1
1996-09-01 4.1 4.2 4.0
1996-12-01 4.6 4.6 4.3
1997-03-01 4.6 4.6 4.5
1997-06-01 4.4 4.6 4.2
1997-09-01 4.9 5.0 4.6
1997-12-01 4.8 5.1 4.8
1998-03-01 4.9 5.0 4.8
1998-06-01 4.7 5.2 4.8
1998-09-01 4.6 5.1 4.4
1998-12-01 4.8 4.8 4.5
1999-03-01 4.8 4.8 4.5
1999-06-01 4.4 4.2 4.5
1999-09-01 4.1 4.0 4.4
1999-12-01 4.5 4.3 4.4
2000-03-01 4.6 4.9 4.1
2000-06-01 5.1 4.8 4.0
2000-09-01 4.5 4.4 3.5
2000-12-01 3.0 3.1 2.7
2001-03-01 2.3 2.2 1.9
2001-06-01 1.2 1.5 1.1
2001-09-01 0.5 0.7 0.7
2001-12-01 0.2 0.5 0.2
2002-03-01 0.8 0.6 1.2
2002-06-01 1.2 1.2 1.7
2002-09-01 1.9 1.6 2.1
2002-12-01 2.3 2.2 2.5
2003-03-01 1.5 1.8 1.8
2003-06-01 1.9 2.1 1.7
2003-09-01 2.9 2.8 2.2
2003-12-01 3.6 3.2 2.8
2004-03-01 4.0 3.6 3.2
2004-06-01 3.9 3.6 3.5
2004-09-01 3.6 3.7 3.1
2004-12-01 3.2 3.5 2.9
2005-03-01 3.6 3.5 2.9
2005-06-01 3.3 3.3 2.9
2005-09-01 3.2 3.2 3.1
2005-12-01 3.5 3.8 3.1
2006-03-01 4.0 4.3 3.3
2006-06-01 3.6 4.0 3.0
2006-09-01 3.0 3.5 2.8
2006-12-01 2.6 2.5 2.9
2007-03-01 1.0 1.2 2.3
2007-06-01 1.2 0.8 2.6
2007-09-01 1.0 0.1 2.3
2007-12-01 0.6 -0.3 1.7
2008-03-01 0.4 -0.2 1.2
2008-06-01 0.2 -0.4 0.2
2008-09-01 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9
2008-12-01 -2.6 -2.2 -2.7
2009-03-01 -3.8 -3.5 -4.2
2009-06-01 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2
2009-09-01 -3.2 -2.2 -2.8
2009-12-01 0.0 0.3 -1.1
2010-03-01 1.8 1.9 1.1
2010-06-01 2.7 2.7 2.3
2010-09-01 3.3 3.1 2.1
2010-12-01 2.6 2.6 2.4
2011-03-01 2.2 2.4 2.1
2011-06-01 2.0 2.2 1.5
2011-09-01 1.4 1.9 1.7
2011-12-01 1.9 2.3 2.0
2012-03-01 3.3 3.3 2.4
2012-06-01 3.0 3.2 2.6
2012-09-01 2.6 2.7 2.5
2012-12-01 2.0 2.4 2.2
2013-03-01 1.1 1.3 2.2
2013-06-01 1.1 1.4 2.2
2013-09-01 1.6 1.6 2.5
2013-12-01 2.0 1.5 2.8
2014-03-01 1.7 2.0 2.5
2014-06-01 2.5 2.7 3.0
2014-09-01 3.2 3.3 3.2
2014-12-01 3.2 3.7 3.4
2015-03-01 3.5 3.5 3.7
2015-06-01 2.8 2.7 3.4
2015-09-01 2.2 2.1 3.3
2015-12-01 1.7 1.6 2.9
2016-03-01 1.4 1.4 2.9
2016-06-01 1.3 1.5 2.9
2016-09-01 1.8 1.8 2.8
2016-12-01 1.6 1.5 2.7
2017-03-01 1.6 1.4 2.6

Return to text


Figure 4: Residual Seasonality

Top left plot: GDP

Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1980s 3.3 2.5 3.3 3.2
1990s 2.6 3.8 3.3 3.6
2000s 0.9 2.6 1.7 1.4
2010-2016 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.3


Top left right: BEA

Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1980s 3.4 2.3 3.4 3.3
1990s 2.8 3.9 3.2 3.7
2000s 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.2
2010-2016 1.4 2.2 2.7 2.2


Bottom left plot: GDPplus

Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1980s 3.2 2.6 3.3 3.4
1990s 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.6
2000s 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.2
2010-2016 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.1


Bottom right plot: BL

Period Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1980s 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.7
1990s 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.4
2000s 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.3
2010-2016 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.8

Return to text


Figure 5: Output gap

Left plot: Level

Time CBO BL
1963-03-01 -1.0 -0.3
1963-06-01 -0.8 0.2
1963-09-01 -0.0 0.4
1963-12-01 -0.4 0.5
1964-03-01 0.7 0.9
1964-06-01 0.8 1.3
1964-09-01 1.0 1.7
1964-12-01 0.3 1.8
1965-03-01 1.7 2.4
1965-06-01 2.0 2.7
1965-09-01 2.9 3.2
1965-12-01 4.1 3.6
1966-03-01 5.5 4.1
1966-06-01 4.8 3.9
1966-09-01 4.4 3.7
1966-12-01 4.1 3.4
1967-03-01 3.8 3.1
1967-06-01 2.7 2.8
1967-09-01 2.4 3.0
1967-12-01 2.1 3.1
1968-03-01 2.9 3.4
1968-06-01 3.5 3.7
1968-09-01 3.1 3.7
1968-12-01 2.4 4.0
1969-03-01 2.9 4.1
1969-06-01 2.2 4.0
1969-09-01 1.8 3.8
1969-12-01 0.5 3.2
1970-03-01 -0.6 2.3
1970-06-01 -1.2 1.6
1970-09-01 -1.0 1.3
1970-12-01 -2.8 0.6
1971-03-01 -0.9 1.3
1971-06-01 -1.1 1.6
1971-09-01 -1.0 1.7
1971-12-01 -1.5 2.3
1972-03-01 -0.5 2.9
1972-06-01 1.1 3.3
1972-09-01 1.3 3.4
1972-12-01 2.2 4.3
1973-03-01 3.8 4.7
1973-06-01 4.2 4.2
1973-09-01 2.8 3.7
1973-12-01 2.9 3.5
1974-03-01 1.2 2.3
1974-06-01 0.5 1.6
1974-09-01 -1.4 0.4
1974-12-01 -2.7 -1.4
1975-03-01 -4.8 -3.0
1975-06-01 -4.9 -2.6
1975-09-01 -4.1 -1.6
1975-12-01 -3.5 -0.8
1976-03-01 -2.1 0.2
1976-06-01 -2.1 0.2
1976-09-01 -2.3 -0.1
1976-12-01 -2.4 0.1
1977-03-01 -2.0 0.5
1977-06-01 -0.9 1.1
1977-09-01 0.1 1.3
1977-12-01 -0.7 1.4
1978-03-01 -1.2 1.3
1978-06-01 1.7 2.1
1978-09-01 1.8 2.1
1978-12-01 2.3 1.9
1979-03-01 1.6 1.5
1979-06-01 1.0 0.8
1979-09-01 0.9 0.4
1979-12-01 0.4 -0.2
1980-03-01 0.1 -1.2
1980-06-01 -2.5 -3.2
1980-09-01 -3.1 -3.1
1980-12-01 -1.8 -2.3
1981-03-01 -0.3 -2.5
1981-06-01 -1.7 -2.6
1981-09-01 -1.2 -3.2
1981-12-01 -3.0 -4.3
1982-03-01 -5.5 -5.1
1982-06-01 -5.7 -5.5
1982-09-01 -6.9 -6.2
1982-12-01 -7.7 -6.2
1983-03-01 -7.1 -5.2
1983-06-01 -5.7 -4.3
1983-09-01 -4.5 -3.2
1983-12-01 -3.3 -2.3
1984-03-01 -2.2 -2.0
1984-06-01 -1.3 -1.7
1984-09-01 -1.3 -1.8
1984-12-01 -1.4 -1.8
1985-03-01 -1.3 -1.9
1985-06-01 -1.4 -1.9
1985-09-01 -0.7 -1.9
1985-12-01 -0.9 -1.9
1986-03-01 -0.9 -1.8
1986-06-01 -1.4 -1.7
1986-09-01 -1.3 -1.6
1986-12-01 -1.6 -1.5
1987-03-01 -1.8 -1.4
1987-06-01 -1.5 -1.1
1987-09-01 -1.5 -0.9
1987-12-01 -0.7 -0.6
1988-03-01 -0.9 -0.6
1988-06-01 -0.4 -0.4
1988-09-01 -0.6 -0.5
1988-12-01 -0.1 -0.2
1989-03-01 0.2 -0.3
1989-06-01 0.2 -0.6
1989-09-01 0.1 -0.7
1989-12-01 -0.4 -0.9
1990-03-01 -0.0 -0.9
1990-06-01 -0.3 -1.2
1990-09-01 -1.0 -2.0
1990-12-01 -2.5 -2.9
1991-03-01 -3.6 -3.5
1991-06-01 -3.5 -3.5
1991-09-01 -3.6 -3.3
1991-12-01 -3.7 -3.6
1992-03-01 -3.2 -3.3
1992-06-01 -2.7 -3.1
1992-09-01 -2.3 -3.0
1992-12-01 -2.0 -2.6
1993-03-01 -2.4 -2.3
1993-06-01 -2.5 -2.3
1993-09-01 -2.7 -2.0
1993-12-01 -2.0 -1.6
1994-03-01 -1.7 -1.2
1994-06-01 -1.1 -0.9
1994-09-01 -1.2 -0.7
1994-12-01 -0.8 -0.3
1995-03-01 -1.2 -0.5
1995-06-01 -1.6 -0.8
1995-09-01 -1.5 -0.6
1995-12-01 -1.5 -0.6
1996-03-01 -1.6 -0.6
1996-06-01 -0.6 -0.1
1996-09-01 -0.5 0.2
1996-12-01 -0.2 0.2
1997-03-01 -0.4 0.5
1997-06-01 0.2 0.8
1997-09-01 0.5 1.2
1997-12-01 0.3 1.4
1998-03-01 0.3 1.6
1998-06-01 0.3 1.7
1998-09-01 0.5 1.8
1998-12-01 1.1 2.1
1999-03-01 0.9 2.2
1999-06-01 0.7 2.3
1999-09-01 1.0 2.4
1999-12-01 1.7 2.8
2000-03-01 1.0 2.7
2000-06-01 1.9 2.8
2000-09-01 1.1 2.6
2000-12-01 0.7 2.3
2001-03-01 -0.5 1.7
2001-06-01 -0.8 1.2
2001-09-01 -1.9 0.8
2001-12-01 -2.4 0.3
2002-03-01 -2.2 0.5
2002-06-01 -2.4 0.5
2002-09-01 -2.5 0.6
2002-12-01 -3.1 0.4
2003-03-01 -3.2 0.2
2003-06-01 -2.9 0.4
2003-09-01 -1.9 0.6
2003-12-01 -1.3 1.1
2004-03-01 -1.3 1.2
2004-06-01 -1.2 1.4
2004-09-01 -1.0 1.4
2004-12-01 -0.7 1.6
2005-03-01 -0.3 1.8
2005-06-01 -0.4 1.9
2005-09-01 -0.1 1.9
2005-12-01 -0.1 2.1
2006-03-01 0.5 2.4
2006-06-01 0.3 2.2
2006-09-01 -0.0 2.1
2006-12-01 0.3 2.3
2007-03-01 -0.1 1.9
2007-06-01 0.2 1.9
2007-09-01 0.4 1.7
2007-12-01 0.4 1.3
2008-03-01 -0.7 0.8
2008-06-01 -0.7 0.1
2008-09-01 -1.6 -0.8
2008-12-01 -4.1 -1.9
2009-03-01 -5.9 -3.8
2009-06-01 -6.3 -4.5
2009-09-01 -6.3 -4.1
2009-12-01 -5.6 -3.8
2010-03-01 -5.3 -3.3
2010-06-01 -4.6 -2.6
2010-09-01 -4.2 -2.6
2010-12-01 -3.8 -2.5
2011-03-01 -4.4 -2.4
2011-06-01 -4.0 -2.4
2011-09-01 -4.0 -2.2
2011-12-01 -3.2 -1.9
2012-03-01 -2.9 -1.7
2012-06-01 -2.8 -1.7
2012-09-01 -3.0 -1.9
2012-12-01 -3.3 -1.9
2013-03-01 -3.0 -1.7
2013-06-01 -3.2 -1.7
2013-09-01 -2.8 -1.7
2013-12-01 -2.2 -1.5
2014-03-01 -2.9 -1.6
2014-06-01 -2.4 -1.3
2014-09-01 -1.6 -1.0
2014-12-01 -1.4 -0.7
2015-03-01 -1.3 -0.6
2015-06-01 -1.1 -0.9
2015-09-01 -1.0 -0.8
2015-12-01 -1.2 -0.9
2016-03-01 -1.4 -0.8
2016-06-01 -1.5 -1.1
2016-09-01 -1.0 -1.0
2016-12-01 -0.9 -1.1
2017-03-01 -1.0 -1.1


Right plot: 4-quarter percentage change

Time CBO BL
1964-03-01 1.7 1.3
1964-06-01 1.6 1.1
1964-09-01 1.0 1.4
1964-12-01 0.7 1.3
1965-03-01 1.0 1.5
1965-06-01 1.2 1.4
1965-09-01 1.9 1.4
1965-12-01 3.8 1.8
1966-03-01 3.8 1.6
1966-06-01 2.8 1.2
1966-09-01 1.5 0.6
1966-12-01 -0.1 -0.2
1967-03-01 -1.7 -1.0
1967-06-01 -2.0 -1.1
1967-09-01 -1.9 -0.8
1967-12-01 -2.0 -0.3
1968-03-01 -0.9 0.3
1968-06-01 0.7 0.9
1968-09-01 0.6 0.8
1968-12-01 0.3 0.9
1969-03-01 -0.1 0.7
1969-06-01 -1.3 0.3
1969-09-01 -1.2 0.0
1969-12-01 -1.9 -0.8
1970-03-01 -3.4 -1.8
1970-06-01 -3.3 -2.4
1970-09-01 -2.9 -2.4
1970-12-01 -3.3 -2.6
1971-03-01 -0.3 -1.0
1971-06-01 0.1 -0.0
1971-09-01 0.0 0.4
1971-12-01 1.3 1.7
1972-03-01 0.4 1.6
1972-06-01 2.2 1.7
1972-09-01 2.3 1.7
1972-12-01 3.6 2.0
1973-03-01 4.3 1.8
1973-06-01 3.1 0.9
1973-09-01 1.6 0.3
1973-12-01 0.8 -0.8
1974-03-01 -2.6 -2.4
1974-06-01 -3.6 -2.6
1974-09-01 -4.2 -3.3
1974-12-01 -5.6 -4.9
1975-03-01 -6.0 -5.3
1975-06-01 -5.4 -4.2
1975-09-01 -2.7 -2.0
1975-12-01 -0.9 0.6
1976-03-01 2.7 3.2
1976-06-01 2.8 2.8
1976-09-01 1.7 1.5
1976-12-01 1.2 0.9
1977-03-01 0.1 0.3
1977-06-01 1.2 0.9
1977-09-01 2.4 1.3
1977-12-01 1.6 1.3
1978-03-01 0.8 0.8
1978-06-01 2.6 1.0
1978-09-01 1.7 0.8
1978-12-01 3.0 0.6
1979-03-01 2.9 0.2
1979-06-01 -0.8 -1.3
1979-09-01 -0.9 -1.7
1979-12-01 -1.9 -2.2
1980-03-01 -1.5 -2.7
1980-06-01 -3.4 -4.0
1980-09-01 -4.0 -3.4
1980-12-01 -2.3 -2.1
1981-03-01 -0.4 -1.4
1981-06-01 0.8 0.6
1981-09-01 2.0 -0.2
1981-12-01 -1.2 -2.0
1982-03-01 -5.2 -2.5
1982-06-01 -4.1 -2.9
1982-09-01 -5.8 -2.9
1982-12-01 -4.6 -1.8
1983-03-01 -1.7 -0.1
1983-06-01 0.1 1.2
1983-09-01 2.4 3.0
1983-12-01 4.3 3.9
1984-03-01 4.9 3.2
1984-06-01 4.3 2.6
1984-09-01 3.3 1.4
1984-12-01 1.9 0.6
1985-03-01 0.9 0.1
1985-06-01 -0.0 -0.2
1985-09-01 0.5 -0.1
1985-12-01 0.5 -0.1
1986-03-01 0.4 0.0
1986-06-01 -0.0 0.2
1986-09-01 -0.5 0.3
1986-12-01 -0.7 0.4
1987-03-01 -0.9 0.4
1987-06-01 -0.2 0.6
1987-09-01 -0.2 0.7
1987-12-01 1.0 0.9
1988-03-01 0.9 0.9
1988-06-01 1.1 0.7
1988-09-01 0.9 0.4
1988-12-01 0.6 0.4
1989-03-01 1.1 0.3
1989-06-01 0.6 -0.2
1989-09-01 0.8 -0.3
1989-12-01 -0.3 -0.7
1990-03-01 -0.2 -0.6
1990-06-01 -0.5 -0.5
1990-09-01 -1.1 -1.2
1990-12-01 -2.1 -2.1
1991-03-01 -3.6 -2.6
1991-06-01 -3.1 -2.3
1991-09-01 -2.6 -1.4
1991-12-01 -1.2 -0.6
1992-03-01 0.5 0.1
1992-06-01 0.8 0.4
1992-09-01 1.2 0.4
1992-12-01 1.8 0.9
1993-03-01 0.7 1.0
1993-06-01 0.2 0.8
1993-09-01 -0.3 0.9
1993-12-01 -0.1 1.1
1994-03-01 0.7 1.1
1994-06-01 1.4 1.5
1994-09-01 1.5 1.4
1994-12-01 1.2 1.3
1995-03-01 0.5 0.8
1995-06-01 -0.5 0.1
1995-09-01 -0.2 0.0
1995-12-01 -0.7 -0.3
1996-03-01 -0.4 -0.1
1996-06-01 1.0 0.7
1996-09-01 1.0 0.8
1996-12-01 1.2 0.9
1997-03-01 1.2 1.1
1997-06-01 0.8 0.9
1997-09-01 1.0 1.0
1997-12-01 0.6 1.2
1998-03-01 0.7 1.1
1998-06-01 0.0 0.9
1998-09-01 0.0 0.6
1998-12-01 0.8 0.6
1999-03-01 0.6 0.5
1999-06-01 0.5 0.6
1999-09-01 0.4 0.7
1999-12-01 0.6 0.7
2000-03-01 0.1 0.6
2000-06-01 1.2 0.5
2000-09-01 0.1 0.1
2000-12-01 -1.0 -0.4
2001-03-01 -1.5 -1.0
2001-06-01 -2.7 -1.6
2001-09-01 -3.0 -1.7
2001-12-01 -3.2 -2.0
2002-03-01 -1.8 -1.2
2002-06-01 -1.6 -0.7
2002-09-01 -0.6 -0.3
2002-12-01 -0.7 0.1
2003-03-01 -1.0 -0.3
2003-06-01 -0.6 -0.1
2003-09-01 0.7 0.1
2003-12-01 1.8 0.7
2004-03-01 1.9 1.0
2004-06-01 1.7 1.0
2004-09-01 0.9 0.8
2004-12-01 0.6 0.5
2005-03-01 1.1 0.6
2005-06-01 0.9 0.5
2005-09-01 0.8 0.4
2005-12-01 0.6 0.5
2006-03-01 0.8 0.6
2006-06-01 0.7 0.3
2006-09-01 0.1 0.2
2006-12-01 0.4 0.2
2007-03-01 -0.6 -0.6
2007-06-01 -0.1 -0.3
2007-09-01 0.5 -0.4
2007-12-01 0.1 -1.0
2008-03-01 -0.6 -1.0
2008-06-01 -0.9 -1.8
2008-09-01 -2.0 -2.5
2008-12-01 -4.5 -3.2
2009-03-01 -5.1 -4.7
2009-06-01 -5.6 -4.6
2009-09-01 -4.7 -3.3
2009-12-01 -1.4 -1.9
2010-03-01 0.5 0.5
2010-06-01 1.7 1.9
2010-09-01 2.1 1.5
2010-12-01 1.8 1.3
2011-03-01 0.9 0.9
2011-06-01 0.6 0.2
2011-09-01 0.1 0.4
2011-12-01 0.5 0.6
2012-03-01 1.5 0.7
2012-06-01 1.2 0.7
2012-09-01 1.1 0.3
2012-12-01 -0.1 0.0
2013-03-01 -0.1 -0.0
2013-06-01 -0.4 -0.0
2013-09-01 0.2 0.2
2013-12-01 1.1 0.4
2014-03-01 0.1 0.1
2014-06-01 0.8 0.5
2014-09-01 1.2 0.7
2014-12-01 0.8 0.8
2015-03-01 1.6 1.0
2015-06-01 1.3 0.4
2015-09-01 0.5 0.2
2015-12-01 0.2 -0.2
2016-03-01 -0.1 -0.2
2016-06-01 -0.4 -0.1
2016-09-01 0.0 -0.2
2016-12-01 0.3 -0.2
2017-03-01 0.4 -0.2

Return to text