New #FEDSNote: Convenience Yields, Risk Premiums, and the Interpretation of Oil Futures Prices During Times of Geopolitical Conflict: https://lnkd.in/guaFkY7s
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The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors
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Updates
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New #FEDSNote: Beyond the Current Account: U.S. Financial Flows and Global Imbalances: https://lnkd.in/g45jShP3
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New #FEDSNote: Assessing Monetary Policy Globally: Evidence from LLMs and Semi-structural Models: https://lnkd.in/g_p6yddY
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New #FEDSNote: Measuring Spending in the Survey of Consumer Finances: https://lnkd.in/gJA4hp8g
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New #FEDSNote finds at least 15% of families are unable to lean on relatives and friends for financial or caregiving support: https://lnkd.in/gReRg343
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New #FEDSNote says I don't know about you, but my MPC is 0.22: https://lnkd.in/gHR7Pjwn
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New #FEDSPaper: Bells and Whistles of Nowcasting Models: Which Matter and When? https://lnkd.in/gJk4iZXq
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A declining role of goods production in the U.S. economy has long been a topic of intense policy and research focus. But goods production remains more important than narrow measures might suggest. Recessions are largely goods phenomena, with services making much smaller contributions to the business cycle. And overall goods GDP has been stable at around 1/4th of total GDP over the past couple decades. https://lnkd.in/gzt2cYgq
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Real-time monitoring of U.S. manufacturing activity typically relies on high-frequency national aggregates that lack industry detail. In this #FEDSNote, the authors assess the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), an experimental, biweekly product of the U.S. Census Bureau, as a timely source that bridges this gap by providing industry detail. The authors compare BTOS diffusion indices against established manufacturing indicators and find strong co-movement at the aggregate level, particularly for prices and supplier delivery times. Critically, the industry-level granularity reveals substantial heterogeneity across manufacturing subsectors that sector aggregates obscure. A case study of the 2025 tariff increases demonstrates this value: subsectors with greater tariff exposure exhibit faster price growth than less-exposed subsectors—dynamics masked in aggregate data but essential for understanding the differential impacts of policy shocks. https://lnkd.in/gc3Zbqhg
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New #FEDSNote: Pricing Sentiment: Measuring Input Cost Pressure from ISM Survey Responses: https://lnkd.in/g73kvYSf