Techniques for Better Decision Making

Rick Rubin went on stage in Helsinki the day after my talk. Someone asked how he resolves creative differences with artists. His answer was simple: change the conversation from "I disagree" to "let's build it." Then he shared a story: An artist played him a song. The transition didn't work. Rubin told him so. The artist said, "We'll just cut that part in half." Rubin thought to himself: What a dumb idea. But he didn't say that. He said, "Let's try it." The artist played it. It worked. Rubin is a legend. He's produced everyone from Johnny Cash to Jay-Z. Instead, he bit his tongue and let the artist prove him wrong. The principle: when you make an idea tangible, it stops being the person's idea. It becomes something you can both look at objectively and improve together. Once you build it, the truth is obvious. Here's what this looks like in practice: Your designer wants to change the entire homepage layout. You think it's too risky. Instead of three meetings debating it, you say: "Let's build a prototype and test it with 50 users this week." Your sales team wants to restructure the pricing page. Instead of blocking it because you're worried about conversions, you say: "Let's run it as an A/B test on 20% of traffic for two weeks." Your engineer wants to rebuild a core feature from scratch. You think it's overengineered. But instead of killing it in the planning phase, you say: "Spike it out in three days and show me if the performance gain is real." You're not saying yes to everything. You're saying, "Let's find out." Rubin also said something that stuck with me: "If there's disagreement, I always side with the artist's vision. Because to them, it's their career. To me, it's just one piece of my portfolio." Most leaders think backing down makes them look weak. Rubin knows that siding with the person who has the most at stake makes better work happen. Your job isn't to be right. It's to create the conditions where the best idea wins. Stop debating. Start building. P.S. This insight is from this week's newsletter where I break down why Yamaha dominates while Steinway got sold to private equity: https://lnkd.in/efSqP_9K P.P.S. Access additional research links, the podcast, and the full archive in the first comment 👇 Thank you to Nordic Business Forum!

This 20-minute exercise from Stanford could change your life. It’s called The Odyssey Plan. It reveals 3 possible futures—and forces you to confront what you really want. Here’s how it works (and why you should try it): 🧵 The Odyssey Plan was developed by Stanford’s design lab—the same minds behind the bestselling book Designing Your Life. It’s simple. But powerful. You imagine 3 completely different versions of your next 5 years. And it will challenge everything you think you know. First: Map out your life if you stayed on your current path. Same job. Same routine. Same direction. Where are you in 5 years? How do you feel? Second: Design a life that’s totally different. What if you took a risk? Switched careers? Moved to a new place? No wrong answers—just explore. Where does that version of you end up? Third: Build a future where money and other people’s opinions don’t matter. Forget what's “realistic.” If nothing was stopping you—what life would you create? That’s your third path. Most people live on autopilot. The Odyssey Plan forces you to zoom out, ask bigger questions, and imagine other routes. Not to fantasize—but to choose intentionally. The biggest trap in life? Thinking your current path is the only path. The Odyssey Plan shows you how many options you actually have. And which ones are worth pursuing. Want clarity? Do the Odyssey Plan. 3 futures. 1 decision. Endless insight. Your next chapter starts by imagining more than one.

Pick a company Read last 3 annual reports Read last 12 earnings call transcripts Find relevant information on the company Calculate key ratios for it Repeat for another company in the same sector See your understanding of the sector soar in a few weeks. Not sure how or where to start? 4 resources to help you 1) What to read in an earnings transcript  (using Eicher Motors as example) https://lnkd.in/gqaYwkNM 2) What to read in an annual report  (using Titan as example) https://lnkd.in/dtt674gu 3) Quick Financial Analysis using Screener  (using Ultratech Cement as example) https://lnkd.in/dFM9ypEa 4) Ratio Analysis: A Step by Step Guide in Excel  (Using SAIL as an example) https://lnkd.in/dd9HwiqC Subscribe to our channel for more such videos. https://lnkd.in/dR4nvGxd ------- Peeyush Chitlangia, CFA I help you build a career in Valuation and Investment Banking

AI Product Management AI Product Management is evolving rapidly. The growth of generative AI and AI-based developer tools has created numerous opportunities to build AI applications. This is making it possible to build new kinds of things, which in turn is driving shifts in best practices in product management — the discipline of defining what to build to serve users — because what is possible to build has shifted. In this post, I’ll share some best practices I have noticed. Use concrete examples to specify AI products. Starting with a concrete idea helps teams gain speed. If a product manager (PM) proposes to build “a chatbot to answer banking inquiries that relate to user accounts,” this is a vague specification that leaves much to the imagination. For instance, should the chatbot answer questions only about account balances or also about interest rates, processes for initiating a wire transfer, and so on? But if the PM writes out a number (say, between 10 and 50) of concrete examples of conversations they’d like a chatbot to execute, the scope of their proposal becomes much clearer. Just as a machine learning algorithm needs training examples to learn from, an AI product development team needs concrete examples of what we want an AI system to do. In other words, the data is your PRD (product requirements document)! In a similar vein, if someone requests “a vision system to detect pedestrians outside our store,” it’s hard for a developer to understand the boundary conditions. Is the system expected to work at night? What is the range of permissible camera angles? Is it expected to detect pedestrians who appear in the image even though they’re 100m away? But if the PM collects a handful of pictures and annotates them with the desired output, the meaning of “detect pedestrians” becomes concrete. An engineer can assess if the specification is technically feasible and if so, build toward it. Initially, the data might be obtained via a one-off, scrappy process, such as the PM walking around taking pictures and annotating them. Eventually, the data mix will shift to real-word data collected by a system running in production. Using examples (such as inputs and desired outputs) to specify a product has been helpful for many years, but the explosion of possible AI applications is creating a need for more product managers to learn this practice. Assess technical feasibility of LLM-based applications by prompting. When a PM scopes out a potential AI application, whether the application can actually be built — that is, its technical feasibility — is a key criterion in deciding what to do next. For many ideas for LLM-based applications, it’s increasingly possible for a PM, who might not be a software engineer, to try prompting — or write just small amounts of code — to get an initial sense of feasibility. [Reached length limit. Full text: https://lnkd.in/gYY-hvHh ]

90% of CEOs feel like they're barely keeping up. I've been there. You're not alone. After coaching hundreds of SMB founders, I created this checklist to bring clarity to the chaos. Here's what separates CEOs who thrive from those just trying to survive: 1. STRATEGIC DIRECTION ↳ Your North Star guides every decision. ↳ Review assumptions quarterly. Pivots save companies. ↳ Progress beats perfection. Ship, learn, iterate. 2. REVENUE ENGINE ↳ Know your ideal customer's biggest pain point. ↳ Healthy pipeline = peaceful sleep at night. ↳ Track leading indicators, not just closed deals. 3. TEAM & CULTURE ↳ Great culture attracts great people naturally. ↳ Your team wants meaning, not just money. ↳ Celebrate wins publicly. Coach privately. 4. SCALABLE OPERATIONS ↳ Start documenting before you feel ready. ↳ Every fire you fight twice needs a system. ↳ Delegate outcomes, not just tasks. 5. CASH & CAPITAL ↳ Cash runway = peace of mind. ↳ Know your burn rate like your birthday. ↳ Multiple funding options reduce desperation. 6. CUSTOMERS & RETENTION ↳ Your best insights come from customer conversations. ↳ Happy customers are your real sales team. ↳ Churn signals need immediate attention. 7. TECHNOLOGY & DATA ↳ Simple dashboards beat complex reports. ↳ Automate repetitive work. Focus on strategy. ↳ Data removes guesswork from decisions. 8. RISK & COMPLIANCE ↳ Protection today prevents disasters tomorrow. ↳ Good lawyers save more than they cost. ↳ Insurance helps you sleep better. 9. BRAND & MARKET PRESENCE ↳ Consistency beats creativity every time. ↳ Your customers should recognize you instantly. ↳ Thought leadership opens unexpected doors. 10. LEADERSHIP & SELF-MASTERY ↳ You can't pour from an empty cup. ↳ Morning routines compound into success. ↳ Your growth limits your company's growth. 11. BOARD & ADVISORS ↳ Wise advisors shorten your learning curve. ↳ Different perspectives prevent blind spots. ↳ Use their experience. That's why they're there. 12. EXIT & LONG-TERM OPTIONS ↳ Build a business that works without you. ↳ Know your options, even if you love what you do. ↳ Flexibility reduces pressure and stress. 🔖 Save this. Reference it monthly. ♻️ Share it. Help a CEO in your network. Being CEO is the hardest job in business. But you don't have to figure it out alone. P.S. Which of the 12 areas deserves more attention? Share your view in the comments. Want a PDF of the CEO Checklist? Get it free: https://lnkd.in/g3PRw5ir And follow Eric Partaker for more CEO insights. ————— 📢 Ready to become a world-class CEO? My next cohort of the CEO Accelerator kicks off next month. Sign up now and save with a special Earlybird offer: https://lnkd.in/g8_T2Kpr 20+ Founders & CEOs have already enrolled. Make 2025 your breakthrough year.

The ability to create clarity when there’s no shortage of chaos, opinions, and competing priorities is a rare skill. In any reasonably competent company, this skill alone will help take you quite far, fairly quickly. Concretely, this means creating clarity on the main problems, clarity on the right solutions, and clarity on the action plan & priorities. Very few people can do this well even though most people possess the intelligence necessary to do it. This is because most people in the workplace have been conditioned to add more information, sound more clever, satisfy more stakeholders, and feign more precision & certainty than is possible. Few understand that clarity in a chaotic situation can only emerge from subtraction, never from addition. Clarity comes from communicating what stands out as most important, why it is most important, how it will be achieved, and last but not the least, giving people a way of thinking about why it is okay, even great, that we aren’t doing All The Other Things.

The future belongs to the fast. The vision of Industry 4.0 is to provide companies with the flexibility to respond quickly to the rapidly changing demands of the markets, increase the customization and personalization of products, shorten product life-cycles, and increase productivity. Modern technology, vertical and horizontal process and system integration, decision support systems, and cyber-physical systems all come together seamlessly allowing a factory to become smart and agile. Assets, processes, and applications will respond in real-time, drastically reducing the time between an event occurring and the implementation of an appropriate response. Increasing the speed at which companies can identify and react to changing conditions will be one of the biggest competitive advantages over the next few years. In fact, you could argue it will be more than a competitive advantage as customers will simply expect it. 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐨 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭? The answer lies in the direct correlation between decision speed and profitability. Studies have repeatedly shown that the faster an organization can make and execute decisions, the greater its sales and profitability. A notable study by Jay Robert Baum and Stefan Wally, conducted over four years across 318 companies in 10 industries, found that strategic decision-making speed was the biggest predictor of a firm's subsequent growth and profitability. McKinsey confirmed this in 2019, highlighting that the best organizations make good decisions quickly and execute them rapidly. These organizations were twice as likely to report superior returns on their decisions and exhibited higher overall company growth rates. In addition, According to Orgvue’s Time to Decision research, organizations with access to the right data make decisions addressing inefficiency and ineffectiveness 30% faster than those who don’t. Those same organizations also have seen 16% higher profits, as a percentage of total revenue. 𝐅𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞, 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬:  https://lnkd.in/d_dkFEVK ******************************************* • Visit www.jeffwinterinsights.com for access to all my content and to stay current on Industry 4.0 and other cool tech trends • Ring the 🔔 for notifications!

We make decisions all the time, some small, some big. But how do we know we have made the right decision? The 4Cs of Excellent Decisions help you assess this upfront. Knowing whether a decision is good or bad is easy after the fact, once you know the results. The challenge is to know this at the time of making the decision. This applies to every decision, but becomes more important when the decision is • Complex • High impact • Costly • Irreversible Strategic decisions typically have all these four characteristics. This makes it particularly important to assess the quality of your strategic decisions before you actually make them. The follow criteria will help: CLEAR Is the decision clear, concrete and understood on all its facets?  Is it clear why it is made? Is it clear what the consequences are? Is it clear what it takes to implement it? CORRECT Is the underlying evidence accurate and correct? Are the assumptions leading to this decision correct? Is there sufficient qualitative or quantitative data to support the decision? Has the process for making this decision been correct? COMPLETE Are all important factors taken into account? Is the information needed to make this decision complete? Have all relevant stakeholders been involved? Have all alternatives been taken into account? CONSENSUS Is there a shared understanding of the decision and its context? Do relevant stakeholders agree on the decision made? Have all objections been carefully considered? Is it clear how to deal with those stakeholders that do not agree? These are the 4Cs of Excellent Decisions. Use them to evaluate all your important decisions. Think about your last key decision, did it fulfill all four criteria? === If you like this, you also like my The Strategic Leadership Playbook, which contains 64 tools like this with clear instructions for how to use them. Buy the book here: https://lnkd.in/eGz9AZwP #decisionmaking #leadershipgrowth #businessmanagement

Stop nodding along in meetings. Start having impact: Too often, meetings are filled with phrases like: ❌ “That sounds great” ❌ “Let’s table it for another time” ❌ “Let’s circle back when we have more info” From 10 years in high performing teams, here’s what I’ve learnt about meetings: Top performers aren’t afraid to ask the hard questions. Here are 13 questions you can ask to leave a mark: 1/ "What do we have to deprioritize to do this well?" ↳ Use to help create focus. ↳ Shows you understand we can't do everything at once. 2/ "What happens if we do nothing?" ↳ Use to overcome inertia. ↳ Helps identify true priorities. 3/ "Who's done this well that we could learn from?" ↳ Use when projects have been done before. ↳ Shows you want to use others’ learnings. 4/ "What's the simplest way to explain this?" ↳ Use to create clarity. ↳ Shows you understand the importance of simplicity. 5/ "What went wrong last time?" ↳ Use when repeating past initiatives. ↳ Shows you want to learn from experience. 6/ "How will we know if this is working?" ↳ Use when success isn't clearly defined. ↳ Shows you care about real results. 7/ "Who's going to own each workstream?" ↳ Use when responsibilities are unclear. ↳ Prevents the "someone else will do it" problem. 8/ "How does this affect our current priorities?" ↳ Use when new work might disrupt current priorities. ↳ Shows you're thinking about the whole picture. 9/ "Who might we upset by this choice?" ↳ Use when changes could impact others. ↳ Shows you consider how others might feel. 10/ "If we had half the budget, how would we do this?" ↳ Use to find creative solutions. ↳ Shows you can spark new ideas. 11/ "What aren't we seeing here?" ↳ Use when consensus comes too easily. ↳ Shows you look at problems from all angles. 12/ "How does this help us reach our primary goals?" ↳ Use when projects drift from objectives. ↳ Makes sure we're not getting sidetracked. 13/ "What's our plan for the worst-case scenario?" ↳ Use when planning risky initiatives. ↳ Shows you think ahead. Remember: Impact can from asking the right questions. You don't have to be the smartest one in the room. Just ask the questions that make others think differently. P.S. Which of these will you use in your next meeting? — ♻ Repost to inspire your network to have more impact at work. ➕ Follow me (Will McTighe) for more like this.

ESOPs don’t always work, but when they do its magical 5000 Swiggy employees made around 9000 crores in the IPO Some would have made 100 cr plus Many many more would have made 10 cr plus Life changing money for most people and will enable risk taking and another 100 plus startups from this set If you are evaluating offers from startups with significant ESOP component, this is how you should evaluate it For an employee to make meaningful money through ESOPs, 2 things must happen: - Growth in company value - Employee friendly ESOP policies that ensures employees make money when company grows a) Growth in Company Value This is where employees need to think like investors Just like investors are particularly wary of what valuation they are coming in, entry valuations should matter for employees too ESOPs are allotted basis the current valuation The likelihood of a 10x growth in your ESOPs if you are joining a startup valued at 100 million $ is much higher compared to joining a startup already valued at 5 billion $ A 75 lakh ESOP allotment in a 1000 cr valued org with chances of a 10x growth could be a better offer than 2 cr ESOP allotment at a 20000 cr valued org with lower chances of future growth The second thing to judge is the business model and the likelihood of the business to grow( very important for Seed/Series A/B startups) b) ESOP Policies The startup ecosystem is full of stories where employees didn’t make money despite the company growing and having multiple liquidity events. Swiggy, Zomato are examples of great ESOP policy. Many companies have extremely shitty ones Here are the things that should matter most while evaluating policies: 1. Vesting Schedule: The standard is 25% vesting after every year. Any schedule which has higher vesting towards the later years is a red flag Vesting should never be performance linked If performance is bad, it is management’s responsibility to fire 2. Vesting on Leaving/Startups Exit: If you exit, you should retain all options that has vested If a startup gets acquired before all your options vest, there should be accelerated vesting 3. ESOP Communication: There should always be written communication( preferably through ESOP portal) Verbal communication for ESOPs is a huge red flag 4. Strike Price: Strike Price should be as low as possible( Re 1 ideally). This maximizes the value creation for the employee 5. Holding/Exercise Period: Converting options to shares is a major tax liability exercise. With limited exercise period, it becomes impossible for employees to exercise as it means paying up to 40% real taxes on notional capital gains in an asset class that is not liquid Ideally, holding period should be infinite for vested options, even after exit This enables employees to wait for liquidity events without incurring upfront taxation to be paid out of own pocket